That was quite a shock, wasn’t it, Donald Trump’s thumping victory. Many Americans would probably call it ‘awesome’, a word they tend to overuse, but in this case it would be fully justified.
In these situations, I like to ask myself some basic questions: Why, How, Who, Where and What. Here are some answers.
Why did Donald Trump win?: Trump’s comeback from the nadir of January 6 2021 does take some explaining, but if I had to pick it would be the burden of incumbency and a deep unhappiness with economic conditions. Objectively the US economy is in good shape, but inflation has been a killer. Americans are more sensitive to rising prices than we are, and especially to the cost of filling their cars with ‘gas’. Kamala Harris, although she ran a decent campaign and generated lots of good vibes, was never able to distance herself from Biden and nor did she have a convincing pitch on the economy and immigration, issues the Trump campaign ruthlessly exploited.
How the election was won: In America, it’s always about the swing states, notably the three northern ones, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They decided the outcome in 2016 and again in 2020. This time, all three swung back to Trump, and by fairly comfortable margins. Trump scored very well with men and made gains with Hispanics, while Harris surprisingly failed to clock up the margins expected with women voters. She polled less well than Democrat candidates who won Senate and House races. Millions of voters who came out for Biden evidently stayed at home, probably because of disenchantment with their 2020 vote.
Who? There’s a saying in Washington that ‘personnel is policy’. That’s why the focus is now on who will get the key appointments. Mar-a-Lago is no doubt a battlefield of infighting between competing claimants. There will be keen interest in who will be Secretary of State, National Security Adviser, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Commerce, Attorney General and US Trade Representative. The kind of establishment figures that peopled Trump’s first spell – John Kelly, Jim Mattis, Rex Tillerson and Gary Cohn – will be nowhere to be seen this time around. The thought that Robert F Kennedy Jr will have a role in health is not reassuring considering his crankiness about vaccines and fluoridation. It has already been announced that Susie Wiles, a life-long Republican staffer who headed up the Trump campaign, will be his Chief of Staff. With her vast experience stretching back to the Reagan era, she is expected to bring discipline and professionalism to the Trump White House, where chaos often reigned during his first term.
Where is America headed?: Donald Trump now has complete control of the levers of power, but how will he use his undoubted authority? Will he try to undertake a radical remaking of America, or might he perhaps prefer to bask in the glory of his electoral vindication? He has said that his mantra will be ‘promises made, promises kept’, but Americans will be watching to see if he pursues a vendetta against his enemies as he has threatened. That would certainly spur resistance from Democrats and Independents. The commitment of Biden and Harris to a smooth transition ought to encourage Trump to tone down his verbal assault on ‘the enemy within’, but does he have a cooperative gene?
What is Trump likely to do? America needs to brace itself for a high-octane push to deport illegal immigrants, although the numbers being bandied about are impossibly high. On the international front, you would have to worry about Ukraine’s fate, although there are Republican Senators who may resist outright abandonment. NATO’s future is also in the balance. There is much to fear too about Israel being given carte blanche. Even though tariffs are likely to drive up inflation, Trump’s belief in their efficacy is strong and enduring. The aim of America’s trading partners should be to contain any tariff war.
[ Daniel Mulhall: Explaining Donald Trump, from someone who saw him close-upOpens in new window ]
Americans and their friends around the world are in for a bumpy ride, but there is no value in despairingly throwing in the towel.
Donald Trump will be in power for the next four years. Those who have well-founded fears about him need to come to terms with that reality and find ways of managing a less-than-optimum situation. Bellyaching won’t do.
:: Daniel Mulhall is a former Irish Ambassador to the USA. His latest book is Pilgrim Soul: WB Yeats and the Ireland of his Time (New Island Books, 2023). He can be followed on X: @DanMulhall
:: Noel Doran is away