Here’s my question in the wake of the Irish general election results. Did the centre hold and, if so, why did it happen when the political middle ground is being squeezed all over Europe and beyond?
The answer to the first question is, as is often the case, yes and no.
There has been some move to the right driven by concerns about immigration, although it was by no means as dramatic as some had anticipated.
Independent Ireland had its successes in rural Ireland but did not make much of an impact in urban areas. The left also did well by past standards.
Between them, Sinn Féin, Labour, Social Democrats, the Green Party and People Before Profit amassed a vote somewhere in the low-30s.
For their part, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael achieved a combined total of just north of 40%, which is a historic low for them.
Nevertheless, the Irish electorate has chosen to re-elect a government of the centre.
So why was it that Ireland bucked the trend across Europe of incumbent governments of whatever hue getting soundly thrashed?
Look at the two great populist, anti-establishment political upheavals of recent times, Brexit and the Trump phenomenon.
Both were nostalgia projects illustrated by their slogans – ‘Take back control’ and ‘Make America great again’. Both harked back to bygone eras (which may never have existed, but there you are).
In Britain, some were bedazzled by the country’s history of imperial grandeur and the Dunkirk spirit, against which EU membership seemed pale and wan. There was a belief that glory days could somehow be restored with the stroke of a leaver’s pen, making Britain great again.
I once spent a weekend staying with a Trump-supporting American friend who, I discovered, had a passion for black-and-white films from the 1950s.
I surmised that this was based on their depiction of a simpler world of granite-like certainties and of a society less diverse than today in its composition and value systems.
In Ireland, the past is a more complex legacy. I have studied our revolutionary period deeply and have enormous admiration for those who powered that transformative period through their insights, energies and sacrifice.
I also know that, until the past 30 years or so, Ireland was an economic under-performer. Therefore, unlike with Britain and America, it is more difficult to appeal to an Irish economic Shangri-la of recent memory.
Most voters, I think, recognise that Ireland, although it has its problems and faces many uncertainties in a changing world, is actually in relatively good shape.
Let me make it clear. I am not trashing the Ireland I grew up in. I salute the efforts of my parents and the generation they came from which paved the way for a transformation through improved educational provision and availing of the opportunities of the European single market.
The fact is that, overall, Ireland is a more successful country than it was in the lifetimes of most voters and that makes it difficult to construct an angry narrative of failure and the need for radical departures.
It is revealing that younger voters are significantly more partial to political change, probably because they only have a memory of a prosperous Ireland and are frustrated with current failings.
A second factor in conditioning the election outcome was, I believe, a perception of the risks inherent in the times in which we live.
The world is a more unstable place than it has been for many a long year. The election of Donald Trump and the policies he favours tend to deepen the current climate of apprehension about the future.
It may have encouraged just enough Irish voters to stick with ‘the devil they know’ and to shy away from new departures in government.
All of that said, this was a milestone election. The Dáil will be more politically diverse than ever before. With the increased number of TDs and retirement of so many long-standing incumbents, there will be many new faces in Leinster House who will give the sense of a new beginning in Irish politics.
Having for most of the past 100 years had a system of two big parties, we now clearly have three parties vying for supremacy. The multiplicity of smaller parties and non-party TDs will make it more difficult to put together stable governments.
The challenge for the three big parties, all with around 20% support, is to get themselves to 30% and beyond but, as we know from rugby, the 10 yards before the try line are the hardest yards there are.
Sinn Féin will have to figure out how to make those yards. Will it tack to the centre or bank on a left-wing alternative being able to get it across that elusive line on Dublin’s Merrion Street in 2029?
:: Daniel Mulhall is a former Irish Ambassador to the USA. His latest book is Pilgrim Soul: WB Yeats and the Ireland of his Time (New Island Books, 2023). He can be followed on X @DanMulhall and on BlueSky @danmulhall.bsky.social