Tomorrow is election day. You will go to the polls and cast your vote in what could be the most consequential Westminster election in two decades.
Having spent years analysing election results, there are around six seats that could go either way. Not since 2005 have so many seats changed hands.
I bring this up because every election, you hear it: ‘What’s the point of voting?’ and ‘Nothing ever changes,’ followed by ‘They are all the same.’
It is hard to believe this argument can have such traction in a place like Northern Ireland, where we have had nothing but change in our local politics.
Sixty years ago, it was also an election year in the UK. In Northern Ireland, of the 12 Members of the Parliament we sent to the House of Commons, the Unionist Party held every single seat.
Now, as we approach this election, the leader of the main unionist party is in a political fight to hold his seat. We have gone from one-party dominance to being represented by four parties in Westminster, with each reaching big highs and lows in the many elections since 1964.
The depressing argument that things can never change and that your vote does not make a difference fuels a narrative that voters are powerless, which is far from the truth. Even in places where candidates are not successful, their respective results can be crucial in sending a message.
Whether Gerry Carroll in West Belfast in 2015 or Jim Allister in North Antrim in 2010, candidates who do not win but achieve credible results can have an impact and set themselves up for success in future elections.
- With three days to polling day, the pressure is on for the parties - Chris DonnellyOpens in new window
- I’ll not be making any apologies for not voting on Thursday - Jake O’KaneOpens in new window
- British general elections have nothing to do with us, so why do some parties pretend they do? - Brian FeeneyOpens in new window
The next assembly election is in 2027. I promise you that the focus and debate will be set on how people vote on July 4 this year. The current Executive parties will examine what went right for them in this campaign and how voters respond to its first five months in office. Even though this is a Westminster election, it would be naïve to think that our devolved issues have not been an important part of this campaign.
Tomorrow, you’ll be able to register your verdict on the politics you have been experiencing not just over the last 45 days but over the past number of years. You can say what kind of society you want and what change you want to see.
Unlike previous elections, this one has had no overarching issue or narrative to sustain it. That’s why it makes it hard to predict who will come out to vote and on what particular issues they will use to decide who to cast their ballot for.
The contest across the water is largely settled, but the picture here at home is far from certain. Every voter should know that their vote is important and can alter the political map in a big way. This is an incredibly unpredictable contest, with many seats within 3,000-vote margins.
If you are frustrated, angry or happy with the state of politics in Northern Ireland, tell them about it
Please take the 10 minutes tomorrow to exercise your right to vote. Do not let anyone tell you it does not matter; it does. Also, remember this: pundits like me do not determine seats; you do. Polls are only a snapshot at any given time, and nothing is finally decided until the polls close at 10pm.
If you are frustrated, angry or happy with the state of politics in Northern Ireland, tell them about it. Let them know through the only way that matters and that is your vote. Reward those who speak to your values and punish those who you feel do not. As Barack Obama said: “Don’t boo, vote.”
When the votes get counted on July 5, there will be change. The extent of that change is up to the choice we all make together on election day. Decisions are made by those who show up. I’ll be showing up tomorrow; make sure you do, too.