The people have spoken, but just what exactly have they said? All PR-STV counts involve watching counts in slow motion, trying to understand the trends, and anticipating shifts that will inevitably come as candidate fortunes rise and fall through the series of counts that are to come.
The recent election in the Republic promised the potential for a historic result and delivered a return to the status quo. Voters either too apathetic or not convinced by the alternative stayed away or came out to, in essence, return the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael government.
Read more: Daniel Mulhall: Why did Ireland decide to stick with ‘the devil they know’?
That’s right. The government that had been on the wrong end of most polls for three years is set to return with nearly all of the same actors playing leading roles.
The unexpected big winner is Micheál Martin, who defied expectations, leading Fianna Fail to first place in vote share and seats. The party made gains and is now in a stronger position going into the negotiations for the next government.
Martin increased his lead over Fine Gael, and his stronger performance has, in the main, allowed the government to be returned with options to either do a deal with Labour or the independents. They will not have to depend on just one bloc of TDs to form a stable government.
His coalition partners, Fine Gael, had a more mixed outcome. Simon Harris went into the campaign confident but faltered badly as it started. For the third time in a row, Fine Gael bungled a campaign that ended up costing them support, and last Friday led them to their worst-ever vote share as those strong poll numbers that they enjoyed at the start of the campaign faded into the dust.
Read more: Election results confirm a tale of two very different Irelands - The Irish News view
Harris will take some comfort in the prospect of his party entering a fourth term of government, but they need to learn fundamental lessons about why they keep dropping the ball during campaigns.
One party not heading into government is Sinn Féin. During the count, party spokespeople tried valiantly to keep alive the notion of a good result and the prospect of a change in government even though this was disappearing underneath them as count after count demonstrated.
Read more: Tom Kelly: Ireland bucks the trend as centre holds sway in general election
Sinn Féin has lost more than 100,000 votes since 2020, copping the biggest swing away from an incumbent opposition party in the 21st century. Yes, there were bright spots for the party in some seats, particularly in places like Clare.
However, they must recognise that when the question was asked of people to back an alternative government led by Sinn Féin, many voters either did not turn out or switched their support to other parties.
Sinn Féin has lost more than 100,000 votes since 2020, copping the biggest swing away from an incumbent opposition party in the 21st century
A left-leaning government is no further forward today than it was before polling day. Sinn Féin needs to think about how they missed the mark over the coming months and how they break the embrace between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
This result confirmed one thing: Ireland will have three medium-sized parties for the foreseeable future, and any government will require two of those parties. For all the talk about ‘FFG’, Sinn Féin, to have a credible prospect of forming a government, needs to either build a huge lead over their main rivals or woo one of them over to potentially go into government with them.
Sinn Féin tried the former, which looked like a winning strategy until last year, but as their lead dwindled, so did their chances to oust the incumbent government. The latter would require a new approach, it would mean finding policy agreements with Fianna Fáil that could form the basis of as future government.
Read more: Chris Donnelly: Sinn Féin still has job to convince voters it is a party of government
Fianna Fáil could well be electing a new leader at some point during this next Dáil term, which would give Sinn Féin a chance to reset its approach and open new avenues for new coalition partners in the future.
There is an old political quote that says: “Don’t compare me to the almighty; compare me to the alternative.” However, the simple reality of this election was that there was no viable alternative. There was the incumbent government and no other functioning coalition on the other side.
Keeping your options open is never a bad strategy in a PR-STV system, particularly when you need many possible dance partners to get you into government.
