Sinn Féin has done it again. It has confounded expectations and produced another strong result.
This Westminster poll had many risks. Having to fight a campaign across the entire island for part of it, and then deal with the fallout of the disappointment in the Republic, could have seriously wrong-footed the party. Yet it did not. Sinn Féin’s strength is a key story from this election.
The party held all seven of its seats, enjoying swings in places like South Down and Fermanagh and South Tyrone. The west of Northern Ireland is now solid Sinn Féin green.
In 2019, only one Sinn Féin MP was elected with a majority of the vote; as of today three candidates can claim this. Even in seats where the party does not command a majority, it has bolstered its defences. It will be hard to mount a serious challenge to the incumbents in South Down and North Belfast any time soon.
The party’s good news does not stop at the seats it held; it also had some promising results elsewhere. East Derry saw Sinn Féin take on the second safest DUP seat and come within 200 votes of victory. This will become a top target for the next elections at assembly and Westminster levels.
The substantial 27 per cent vote share Sinn Féin received overall will be a necessary boost as it dusts itself down from the local elections in the Republic and gears up for the pending general election there. In the campaign in the north, there could well have been a reaction to the party’s low-key approach to the entire election. Instead, nationalist voters embraced the party in strong numbers.
None of this is to say that this will last forever. Instead, it highlights that the strong assembly result in 2022 is still sticking more than two years later. When you consider the combined strength the party boasts west of the Bann, and once-marginal seats such as Fermanagh and South Tyrone are now firmly in its column, what would it take to be seriously damaged in a future general election?
Having to fight a campaign across the entire island for part of it, and then deal with the fallout of the disappointment in the Republic, could have seriously wrong-footed the party. Yet it did not
The DUP’s recent experience does demonstrate some pitfalls. Not long ago it, too, could have boasted similar strength in places such as North and East Antrim. Now, it has lost one and narrowly held the other. Sinn Féin must be mindful that a rapid climb in support can also fall away just as quickly.
The general election of 2024 is another victory for Sinn Féin and an important story from it. The hat-trick of success is now complete. It has had its mandate renewed and strengthened.
Northern Ireland has no more elections on the books until 2027. Sinn Féin can now use the success of recent elections to put this extensive mandate to work and deliver on its promises.