A new book on the Alliance Party is being launched today in Belfast. A survey of its membership, which has already published some hugely significant findings on the shift towards support for Irish unification, will also tell us more about the party.
Alliance enjoyed an unassailable rise from 2017-23. But since then, its electoral fortunes have been more mixed. The local elections saw gains and inroads, but the party suffered significant defeats in places such as Derry and Strabane.
Similarly, at the most recent Westminster election, a high-profile gain in Lagan Valley was tempered by a big defeat in North Down with the loss of Stephen Farry.
The 2024 Northern Ireland General Election Survey found that since 2019, the Alliance Party has made gains at the expense of the SDLP, UUP and DUP but has hit the bar when it comes to winning over Sinn Féin voters.
The Alliance surge, as we have known it, is effectively over in real terms, and now they are faced with designing a second album. This second album needs to be as convincing as their first.
There is no question that the surge since 2017 was powered by the leadership of Naomi Long. Unlike previous leaders, she was able to communicate effectively in the media and dominate many of the political exchanges that have taken place in our Brexit environment. She was able to articulate a pro-remain argument in a way that looked authentic and sincere to voters who despaired at our exit from the European Union.
There is also no question that Alliance skilfully positioned itself as the party for those who simply wanted better from local politics – constantly hammering their message of the need to reform the institutions.
For many frustrated voters who wanted to protest at the assembly’s various collapses, Alliance became their natural home. Voters who could once be relied upon to support the SDLP or UUP moved to Alliance to register their anger at the gridlock at Stormont.
But that was then, and in 2024, we have Stormont back up and running, with Alliance playing a key role with two positions at the Executive table.
Naomi Long is now the longest-serving of the five main party leaders in the Assembly, and as Alliance continues to serve in the power-sharing government, the arguments around reform will become more challenging.
Alliance will need a new narrative and argument as it approaches the next elections in May 2027. Unlike in 2022, when the party went in with no marginal seats, it goes into the next with four that, with only a small swing, could fall. More worrying is that if the 2024 general election results are repeated, some seats will be under severe pressure.
The Alliance leadership must consider what will inspire the voters they have gained since 2017 to stick with them as well as bring in new ones. We know that the DUP and Sinn Féin have no appetite to bring down the assembly, and even more remarkable is that nine months in, the mood music between the two parties is still positive.
Many issues that fuelled support for Alliance are falling down the scale of importance for voters. From Brexit to anger over Stormont, the trajectory is going against the party, which is why they need to look at how they will position themselves in this environment.
They cannot rely on a potential rift between the big two parties and the SDLP and UUP continuing to falter electorally. Neither is guaranteed to happen. The former have learned hard lessons from past elections about how the public views chaos at Stormont, and the latter has new, experienced leaders who are not in denial about their loss of support to Alliance.
As the publication of this Alliance survey provokes a debate about its membership and how the party has changed over the past few years, there should be more internal debate about where they are going as a political force.
Currently, the party is leveraging itself on reform of the institutions and Naomi Long’s personal ratings.
After Brexit, they need to broaden their issue base, find other causes to champion, and inspire voters to see them as the vehicle to implement them.