Emotion and identity will always trump cost in united Ireland debate – Alex Kane

What is now the Republic of Ireland will become different – quite different – if it includes what was Northern Ireland. And it will become different because it will include an awful lot of people who voted against Irish unity and won’t be happy with it as the consequence of losing a border poll.

There will be confusion. There will be fear. There will be anger. There may be protests and disruption. There may even be violence.

And somehow – which could take a long time – all of this confusion, fear and anger will have to be addressed. A million or so people with a very distinct pro-British, pro-union identity will have to be accommodated in this new state.

The new state itself will struggle because a free, sovereign, independent, unified Ireland has not existed in the lifetime of anyone alive today on either side of the existing border. It hasn’t existed for generations. Some historians, perhaps the majority, might argue that a free, sovereign, independent, unified Ireland has never, in fact, ever existed.

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So, a border poll producing a united Ireland won’t just mean the disappearance of Northern Ireland as a specific place; it would also mean the appearance of something entirely new.

My parents and grandparents were born in a united Ireland. But it was an Ireland which was subsumed into the bigger union of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland. And in a sense, constitutional fortunes would be reversed in a ‘new’ Ireland, because part of the United Kingdom would be subsumed into Ireland – and into the EU again – with the UK reduced to Great Britain; albeit with no guarantees about Scotland’s continuing membership.

What happens to the constitutional and geographical integrity of the UK as a consequence of a border poll removing NI will be watched very closely by Scotland. It will be watched very closely by London too, because if the new Ireland is seen to be stable and cooperative (particularly with GB generally and Westminster in particular) then it could very well serve as a role model for those who want an independent Scotland. The significant difference, of course, is that Scotland would continue to exist as Scotland.

My primary concern with the recent report indicating the size of the bill for Irish reunification is that I’m not persuaded that money will play as big a role in a border poll as some people think. Change, particularly of the kind which involves creating a new state, will always have to be underpinned by a substantial outlay. But it’s obviously not the sort of outlay which will be dumped on the taxpayer from day one. It will be spread out over decades. Some of it may even be written off in post-border poll negotiations.

Emotion and identity will, I think, be the key components for both campaigns in a border poll – much more so than the potential rise in taxes to pay for the new Ireland. Anyway, I genuinely don’t believe that most people presently in favour of Irish unity would be put off by a huge bill which would be paid off over decades. And nor do I believe that most people presently in favour of remaining in the UK would be put off by having to pay higher taxes and water charges etc to stay. Yes, finance will play an important part in the debate, but it won’t trump emotion and identity.

It’s also worth bearing in mind that possible political, electoral, civic and societal consequences will rise up the agenda if a border poll becomes likely. Most people who want unity probably don’t want it just for the sake of it. They’ll want it to be stable and successful and freed from past history, bad memories and bad blood. They won’t want the ‘Irish problem’ in a new form.

I’m not sure if a border poll will come in my lifetime. That said I still think unionism – in all of its manifestations – should be thinking, talking, wargaming and preparing for a poll

I’m not sure if a border poll will come in my lifetime. But that’s only because I’m reaching the coming-close-to-the-end-of-it stages of my life.

That said I still think unionism – in all of its manifestations – should be thinking, talking, wargaming and preparing for a poll.

Better that than being caught on the hop as it was, to name just a few, in 1968, 1972, 1985, 1993 and 2019.