Before it was a political party Sinn Féin was a concept, a concept that imagined Irish freedom, self-determination and – a word not used 120 years ago – decolonisation.
It became a movement, a protean organisation that has had several iterations, some would say reincarnations, since 1905.
Its support waxed and waned according to what prevailing political position the party adopted.
For example, in the 1955 British general election, Sinn Féin won 152,310 votes – a 23.6% share. That was the highest vote for a northern nationalist party until the SDLP’s 160,000 in the February 1974 general election.
On the other hand, during the 1970s when Sinn Féin was boycotting elections, no-one knew how much support the party had. After the 1981 hunger strikes, when SF burst into elected politics, it has been on a continuous upward trajectory apart from a couple of blips.
Now the party’s fortunes have been transformed. It has become the largest on the island, the main opposition party in the south and the dominant party in the north’s toy-town assembly.
As the only national party on the island, it is doubly attractive to northern nationalists for Sinn Féin can speak authentically for them in the Dáil, since the party’s president leads the opposition and takes on board representations from the northern wing, which represents over 70% of nationalist voters here.
In the last three elections in the north, SF has been on a roll, coming top in the 2022 assembly elections and winning decisively in the 2023 council elections and in July’s British general election.
The last poll showed the party on 30%. More significantly, that poll also showed Sinn Féin now attracts substantial middle-class support and also among women.
In recent elections SF has fielded young, highly-educated candidates including young women instead of, as in the past, relying on former IRA operators whose skills, shall we say, were seldom transferable.
The electoral success in recent years has helped silence criticism within the party about making the north work when you strive to abolish it.
First, you can’t look the gift horse of electoral success in the mouth, but secondly, when you’re running the place and transforming it to suit your purposes, why would you not work for the benefit of your supporters?
As Michelle O’Neill said in answer to a question about this, there’s no contradiction in working for people’s general wellbeing and working to achieve self-determination, which will be to everyone’s advantage.
So far so good, but the momentum in the south has faltered. Sinn Féin made a mess of the Euro and council elections in June. They got it wrong on immigration, selected too many candidates and campaigned on the wrong issues.
From the low thirties in opinion polls, they plummeted to 12%. Now, after panicky, hasty realignment, they’ve clawed back to 18-20%.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin in the north is being all sweetness and light in case any injudicious remark or misstep damages the election prospects of their southern comrades. All southern parties are in election mode and though Harris insists he’s going to full term, no-one believes him. The betting is on November.
On present showing Sinn Féin isn’t going to win enough seats be in the next government in the Republic. Besides, polls show people prefer the present coalition to one with SF. It has also to contend with the unremitting hostility of the southern media.
For Sinn Féin in the north, the party getting into government in Dublin would be an immediate game-changer, with ministers sitting across from each other in the North-South Ministerial Council producing all-Ireland policies. It looks as if that is still a future scenario.
In the meantime, until the next election in 2027, the party can set about proving they can run this place for the good of everyone without fear or favour, which is what they intend to do.
The aim is that by doing so they can earn the trust of unionists and promote reconciliation. That’s what Michelle O’Neill was doing when she actually said ‘Northern Ireland’.
Unionist reciprocation may be some time coming.
The electoral success in recent years has helped silence criticism within the party about making the north work when you strive to abolish it
