The recent DUP conference has provoked a debate about where the dominant party of unionism goes next.
I have been attending DUP conferences since 2014 and this one was the smallest and most subdued I have ever been to. When you think back to the packed conference rooms of the La Mon hotel full of delegates waving flags a decade ago and see the smaller crowd last Saturday, it brings home the crisis of confidence that has gripped the DUP in recent years.
Some delegates are staying away, and those who do attend lack the same drive from previous years, and who could blame them?
Since 2021, the DUP has not had a winning political year. Since the ousting of Arlene Foster, the party has struggled to regain the political initiative. Poor election results and an inability to project a confident message have left it in a weakened state.
Yet, and this is a testament to past strength, it remains by a country mile the leading unionist party.
However, as the UUP has discovered, just because you have been a leading party for decades does not mean that will continue forever. The last general election brought about a more plural unionist contest with three parties and an independent representing that side of politics in the House of Commons. This has not been the case for more than 20 years.
Here is another warning sign: North Antrim. If the DUP can lose its heartland seat, it can lose anywhere. To lose such a solid unionist seat merely demonstrates how weary and tired many parts of the electorate are with the DUP’s traditional message.
If the party does not change, the pain will not stop there. The DUP is vulnerable in several Assembly seats in 2027, and it narrowly held two of its Westminster seats, which will be hotly contested in 2029.
Gavin Robinson has all this to consider as he charts the DUP’s future course. What we know about him as a leader is that the party is firmly rooted in remaining within the Executive. The party conference prominently profiled its serving ministers and committee chairs, who were keen to outline the achievements they have delivered in the few months since Stormont returned.
With no elections on the horizon, the challenge is now about changing the party’s image and approach toward campaigning. What worked well from 1998 until 2017 does not have the same impact. The DUP is not the only show in town for pro-union voters, and some of the reflection needs to start from recognising this.
There needs to be a more humble, positive and outward-looking DUP than we have been used to in the past. Gavin Robinson’s electoral performance in East Belfast demonstrates how this can work for the party electorally, as he remains the last DUP MP standing in the city.
At the 2014 conference, Gavin Robinson was formally announced as the new face to try to win back the party’s top target seat at the following year’s election. A decade on, he is now the party leader running the show. He needs to show that the DUP can do something other than merely warn about a border poll and the rise of Sinn Féin.
The DUP has made some fundamental mistakes in recent years. The party still has not properly come to terms with its approach to Brexit, which has damaged the pro-union argument. Gavin spoke a lot about Brexit issues, but something missing in his remarks was any reflection on how the DUP approached this entire adventure from 2016 onwards.
There needs to be an honest conversation about where the party has gone wrong and, more importantly, where it needs to go.
Robinson’s challenge is creating a DUP and a unionism at ease with itself. This is a huge task, but for once, the DUP might have the right leader at the right time if he is determined enough to do it.