The race to form the next Irish government enters its first full week today. This will be a mercifully short, sharp sprint, especially compared to the marathon slog of the US presidential campaign.
It has been an open secret for weeks that November 29 – which neatly avoids the jeopardy of clashing with The Late Late Toy Show on December 6 – was the date favoured by Fine Gael leader and outgoing taoiseach Simon Harris.
Yet when Mr Harris replaced Leo Varadkar in April, he insisted that the coalition formed by his party along with Fianna Fáil and the Greens was committed to seeing out its full term. This would have seen the election called early next year - a position Mr Harris recommitted himself to in early September.
But an earlier election became irresistible. Some will regard this as cheap political opportunism, others as shrewd judgment. Either way, the fact that Mr Harris and his coalition partners were persuaded that now is the right moment to go to the polls is directly linked to two factors: Sinn Féin’s slump; and a buoyant economy, as emphasised by last month’s giveaway budget.
Having been on the front foot for so long, Sinn Féin has seen its support slide in opinion surveys. Last year there was a swagger about the party, when it looked on course to secure more than 30% of the vote and Mary Lou McDonald was being spoken of as a taoiseach in waiting.
But this year has seen a series of stumbles. Support was softening even before the recent series of self-inflicted pratfalls, from the Michael McMonagle and Niall Ó Donnghaile scandals to the curious circumstances of Laois TD Brian Stanley’s departure from the party.
An earlier election became irresistible to Simon Harris and his coalition partners. Some will regard this as cheap political opportunism, others as shrewd judgment
As well as painting Sinn Féin as not being fit for government, the coalition parties will be focusing on how public finances have strengthened on their watch. Around €30 billion of corporate tax income, largely from US tech giants, will flood into the government’s coffers this year - and that’s before another €14bn in back-tax from Apple. It’s an extraordinary amount of money, some of which is being spent on projects in Northern Ireland.
Yet the coalition hasn’t yet managed to use its cash to ease the generally high cost of living or to alleviate the housing problems, which are especially acute in Dublin. And now that Donald Trump is heading back to the White House with his ‘America First’ mantra, there is also the risk that the US tax tap could be suddenly turned off.
Immigration is another vexed issue which the parties and candidates will need to address. Unity should but won’t, be a focus. It would be welcome if all parties were to jointly commit to holding a citizens’ assembly, for example.
This campaign won’t be long, but nor will it be short on drama.
