‘It’s all over bar the voting’. That famous headline from 2002 in the Irish Republic is now being used by analysts and commentators in the aftermath of the English local elections, which saw massive losses for the Conservatives, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens on the march.
Most striking was the failure of Reform to make any big inroads, electing just two councillors. Ironically, the party suffered the same fate as their Northern Ireland partner, the TUV. They got plenty of media attention and, in some places, a decent number of votes – but failed to make a breakthrough in winning seats.
For Rishi Sunak, the issue is when to take the plunge and call the general election.
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Should he go in early July? Or wait until the middle of November? Sunak will have to answer these questions in the next week or two.
Every prime minister wrestles with these judgement calls about whether to go for broke or cling on until the last minute, hoping that something will turn around their political fortunes.
The problem for Sunak is that little in history gives him much direction as to what to do or comfort that he can pull off a shock win like John Major’s in 1992.
After 14 years in office, the Conservatives are already stretching the limit of British politics for longevity. Only the Thatcher-Major administration has enjoyed a longer tenure in recent political history. Like then, this government is heading towards a massive defeat, which is extraordinary given the scale of the Conservatives’ win in 2019.
The question is, what should Sunak do about it? The simple answer is not very much.
Unlike John Major in the early 1990s or Boris Johnson in 2019, he has yet to convince voters that his leadership is radically different or better than what has gone before.
Poll after poll indicates two things: that voters are not enthusiastic about Labour; but that they want change. The latter is trumping the weakness in parts of the Labour vote.
The local elections showed that Labour is vulnerable on its left flank to parties such as the Greens in parts of England. Although for the time being, the desire to oust the Conservatives is keeping a lid on that as a significant problem for Keir Starmer.
Waiting until the middle of November seems to be what Sunak will opt for. However, this simply gives his enemies within the party time to plot and organise against him. What is striking about the current mood of Conservative MPs is the air of resignation now gripping them.
Whilst Sunak may not be on course for victory, he should consider at least saving some of the furniture. Now that the locals have exposed Reform as a busted flush in terms of seats, he should make the convincing case that if you want a robust centre-right option in the next parliament, the Conservatives are your only choice.
Poll after poll indicates two things: that voters are not enthusiastic about Labour; but that they want change
I have heard talk about a 1993 Canadian-style implosion for the Conservatives, with Reform taking a whole swag of seats. This analysis is fundamentally flawed. It ignores that the Reform party in the UK has its support spread across the country, which makes it harder to win seats in a first past the post system. The one big impact that Reform will likely have is turning a moderate Labour majority into a much bigger one.
Sunak has a real decision to make in the next few weeks. Does he cut his losses by going in July? Or does he keep his demoralised government in office for six more months, allowing more discontent to brew within his own ranks?
Losing office is never easy, but the Conservatives have a choice: If defeat is coming, they can make it as quick and painless as they possibly can. The task is using a campaign to save the furniture and living to fight another day.