There is something for both sides of the constitutional debate in the Northern Ireland 2024 general election study.
Unionists will be comforted that support for the union remains substantially higher than backing for Irish unity: 49% to 34% among the electorate as a whole, and 57% to 42% among those who voted in the election.
Nationalists might take heart from the figures for the entire electorate. There is no overall majority for the union, a far cry from the 60%-plus support received before Brexit.
Moreover, the ‘don’t knows’ exceed the gap between the rival constitutional camps. Lots of those ‘don’t knows’ did not vote in the general election. Yet those who always vote in elections will surely be joined at a border poll by thousands of voting irregulars whose ballot is up for grabs.
Referendums on big questions stir the electorate. At 81%, turnout for the Good Friday Agreement referendum exceeded the average for Northern Ireland elections by nearly 20%.
And nationalists can claim that time is on their side. Among the youngest 2024 voters, those aged between 18 and 25, it’s a tie on 48% each between those wanting a united Ireland versus supporters of the nion.
Those youth preferences demonstrate a remarkable generational effect. Among the over-65s, it’s 62% to 38% in favour of the constitutional status quo.
But waiting on the older generation to die off is hardly a grand vision for Irish unification. Demography might shape ultimate destiny but it will be a long wait for a united Ireland. If they want one sooner, nationalists need to persuade those who are neither unionist nor nationalist of the merits of a united Ireland.
That more than two-thirds of Alliance voters do not (yet at least) back the unity project means there is much work to be done. More Alliance Party members now prefer Irish unity than still back the union. Many Alliance voters transfer votes to nationalist parties in Stormont and local elections. But the survey figures suggest around 80,000 Alliance voters at the last election still prefer Northern Ireland in the UK.
What are the most important issues that voters say shape their preference for unity or union? Two-thirds listed the cost-of-living in their top two factors and more than half cited health services.
That said, let’s not pretend that traditional linkages do not dominate desires. More than 93% of British identifiers and 90% of Protestants want to remain part of the UK. 91% of Irish identifiers and 87% of Catholics want a united Ireland.
Judgements on which constitutional arrangement will offer lower living costs and better health provision are shaped by national identity and community background. The unity versus union debate will never be reducible to economics or social provision – but those factors could be decisive among the constitutional neutrals.
Based upon the overall survey findings, the Secretary of State, Hilary Benn, won’t be calling a border poll any time soon. But 62% of people think one should be held within the next two decades. 93% of nationalists and republicans want one but two-thirds of those neither unionist nor nationalist also say bring it on.
Who do electors think would win? Overall, 45% reckon a united Ireland; 55% say Northern Ireland will remain in the UK. Only 15% of unionists and 20% of nationalists think they would lose. The ‘neithers’ split 52% to 48% that there will be a united Ireland.
The only certainty is that the constitutional debate will never go away, y’know.
:: Jon Tonge is Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool.