While the loyal sons of Ulster were setting fire to their sectarian pyres on Thursday, Scots were celebrating the 750th birthday of Robert the Bruce, the arachnophile king who defeated the English at the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314.
The spider is a fitting metaphor for Robert who lured his enemies into a trap before killing them, as Edward II found out to his cost. The Bruce remains today a figured revered by Scots, particularly nationalists who crave the day when Scotland will become a sovereign nation once again.
For a while that day looked to be at hand. In 2014 the ‘Yes’ campaign came close to victory with the independence referendum, and in its wake the Scottish National Party swept all before it. In the 2015 general election, it won 56 Westminster seats out of 59, wiping out Labour. At that point, there were more giant pandas in Scotland than Labour MPs.
In 2019 the SNP saw a healthy 48 MPs elected. But this month, in a dramatic reversal of fortunes, all but nine lost their seats. Scotland is back in Labour hands. Like English voters, Scots voted against a party (in this case the SNP) that had failed to deliver on health and education, was divided and fractious, and beset by scandal.
On the face of it, the election result is a massive blow to hopes that Scottish independence is just around the corner. It is a blow too to those who believed Scotland’s independence journey was part of a dynamic that would lead to Irish reunification.
At its peak, the SNP was doing Sinn Féin’s work for it. The party was undermining the foundations of a union forced on the Scots in 1707 and the Irish in 1801. It was also establishing a narrative which portrayed Celtic nationalism as outward-looking and international compared with little England’s narrow isolationism.
Under Starmer, the UK is still in the grips of the isolationists. The mood music may be different but, by rejecting a return to the single market and customs union, Starmer’s Labour has outsourced much of its foreign and economic policy to the racists and bigots who enabled Brexit.
Labour has also disrespected the electorate in Northern Ireland and Scotland who decisively rejected Brexit and who have suffered the consequences of economic collapse. A union where England decides and the other ‘partners’ are forced to follow is not a union, it is an occupation.
But the SNP’s rout in Scotland is not all it seems. Although it is closely associated with the independence cause, it does not own it. Support for independence transcends the SNP, with polling showing an almost 50:50 split between those who support the UK and those who say ‘good riddance’.
No British government has a mandate in Northern Ireland; and in Scotland it is shaky. Labour – intent on re-election in 2029 - will be focused on policies that appeal to English nationalists
Last week, former Foreign Office adviser David Clark – he worked with Robin Cook – gave an interesting analysis which gives some comfort for those who want to see the UK reduced to an English rump.
He argued that the loss of SNP seats should not be misread as a rejection of independence, pointing out that while the Conservative/Reform vote in England was 41.2 per cent; it was just 19.7 per cent in Scotland where “the main non-Labour force was a pro-independence block polling 34.3 per cent”.
Given support for independence among the wider population is even higher, “the likely shape of future opposition to Labour in Scotland seems clear”, and it is not conservatism.
Scotland and England have very different mindsets, and nothing that happened on July 4 changes that. Starmer’s decision to don the Tory mantle in his language about economic policy, attitudes to immigration and his maximalist opposition to embracing Europe in a meaningful way, leaves Labour’s Scottish contingent on very shaky ground.
The underlying result, Clark suggests, makes the case that there is now greater divergence between Scotland and England - not the convergence Labour’s victory might suggest. I think that is a fair assessment.
I also agree with his view that the UK will collapse within the next 10-20 years. No British government has a mandate in Northern Ireland; and in Scotland it is shaky.
Even with its remarkable electoral success, the reality is that Labour in government – intent on re-election in 2029 - will be focused on policies that appeal to English nationalists. Outside Europe the economy will falter, and Labour will continue to govern against the interests of the UK’s subservient nations and regions.
In all likelihood, Robert the Bruce will once again have his day, as will his brother Edward who, as high king of Ireland, tried to rid the country of the English crown.
