At the Ireland’s Future conference in Belfast last month, First Minister Michelle O’Neill urged thousands of attendees to stop thinking of two communities in the debate on a united Ireland, as the audience heard that the outcome of a border poll “could be decided by a Lithuanian”.
With one in every 15 Northern Ireland residents having been born outside the UK and Ireland, migrant voices should be a part of the conversation on constitutional change.
Following the 2016 Brexit vote, the tectonic plates shifted, and, to many, a united Ireland suddenly felt less like some romantic notion reserved for nationalists and took on the sheen of an attractive alternative to an increasingly insular United Kingdom.
Debates, podcasts and conferences on the future of this island are taking place at an increasing rate, with at least 11 political parties represented at the Ireland’s Future event.
But not all voices are being heard. According to the 2021 census, the population of ethnic minorities has increased to 65,600 and Northern Ireland is now home to almost 150,000 people who were not born in the UK or Ireland – the highest figure ever recorded.
In the south, these numbers are even higher with 1 in 5 people not born in Ireland or the UK and an ethnic minority population of just under 350,000 recorded in 2022. This is a significant community who, if mobilised, could become the hidden kingmakers in a border poll.
The franchise for a border poll remains unknown. In Ireland, only Irish citizens can vote in a constitutional referendum, while in the United Kingdom, the franchise will be determined ahead of the poll.
If the past is anything to go by, British, Irish, and Commonwealth citizens were eligible to vote in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Should the franchise for a border poll in Northern Ireland also extend to Commonwealth citizens, then potentially thousands of people from Australia, Canada, India, and other parts of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Africa will have a say on the future of this island.
There may also be differentials for overseas voters: UK voters retain a right to vote from abroad, though it is not a given that this would be extended for a border poll. Conversely, Ireland denies voting rights to nearly all citizens abroad.
This restriction, however, would not prevent a wave of returning Irish citizens, and one would expect a significant ‘Home to Vote’ campaign should the overseas franchise be excluded.
What is a certainty is that those who have naturalised as Irish or British on the island of Ireland will be eligible to vote in a border poll. Over 175,000 people have become Irish citizens through naturalisation since 2011 and thousands have naturalised as British in Northern Ireland. Hundreds of thousands of dual nationals from all corners of the world will have a vote. The future of this island is about more than just unionists and nationalists.
Hundreds of thousands of dual nationals from all corners of the world will have a vote in a border poll. The future of this island is about more than just unionists and nationalists
However, one of the pressing challenges we need to address in order to create a safe and inclusive space for all communities to engage is the rise in racially-motivated hate crimes both north and south.
Derry Mayor Lillian Seenoi-Barr, the first black mayor in the north, has reportedly received death threats since news broke of her selection, with rampant racist abuse levelled at the politician on social media.
Ireland’s far right are a dangerous minority bolstered by like-minded agitators in the US and UK. Their rise has led to a significant uptick in racially-motivated attacks, with incidents of arson, rioting and assault recurring more frequently. This undoubtedly has an impact on participation – how can we expect more migrants to enter politics or engage on a public platform about a united Ireland when they are likely to face threats and abuse for doing so?
A multi-pronged approach is needed: legislation centred on hate crimes, political outreach and campaigns, and platforming migrant voices.
A border poll will be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reimagine this island and help achieve a more prosperous and progressive society. Too many events about the future of this island are dominated by a revolving troop of white men over 50.
There are a great many people who may not have been born in Ireland or the UK, but who could have a significant impact on whether or not this island is united, a large cohort of whom will hail from countries that have experienced some form of historical oppression.
If mobilised, the ‘new’ Irish could hold a deciding vote on our shared future – they should have a seat at the table.