Northern Ireland’s population will peak at 1.95 million in 2033 then enter long-term decline, according to a new projection from Stormont’s statistics agency.
This will turn the world upside-down: our economy, society and political system rest on assumptions of permanent growth. The population of the area now comprising Northern Ireland has risen in every decade since the end of the 19th century, so a fall is effectively unknown to modern government.
We have had an early taste of the problems this will bring through the drop in pupil numbers as the population ages. Stormont has found the resulting surplus of school places impossible to address, despite recognising the need and opportunity for rationalisation. It inherited a 35,000 surplus in 1999, or about 10% of school capacity, which it has since allowed to double. Closing schools, laying off teachers and ending duplication in a divided society is too daunting a task for elected representatives.
How much this wastes is hard to quantify because cutting places by 20% would not reduce costs by the same proportion. But as a guide to the scale of the problem, one fifth of the education budget is £500 million a year.
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House builders in Northern Ireland have formed a new group, Build Homes NI, to tackle the “growing crisis caused by the region’s failing wastewater infrastructure”.
Alas, the group’s main purpose is to lobby against Stormont’s solution: the developer levy proposed by Sinn Féin infrastructure minister John O’Dowd.
Build Homes NI says its members “are willing to make more financial contributions, but this is only practical for the largest private developments” and Stormont must provide “a proper funding model for NI Water”.
Read more: Wastewater crisis: ‘Enough is enough’ say builders
Although O’Dowd’s idea is far from perfect, the executive lacks the political will to introduce domestic water charges or make cuts elsewhere to give NI Water more.
Realistically, the options are a developer levy or the status quo. Sinn Fein is already suspiciously half-hearted about its own proposal. A strong push-back by developers has a good chance of killing it off.
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NI Water and Mutual Energy, the cooperative that owns the gas and electricity interconnectors to Scotland, are proposing Northern Ireland’s largest energy project in half a century. They want to build a £1 billion hydroelectric power station that can ‘store’ surplus green and off-peak power by pumping sea water up to a new reservoir above Carrickfergus.
The first question this exciting project raises is what environmental excuse will be used to challenge it in court. Sucking fish up the pipe? Despoiling the untouched wilderness of pine plantations and reservoirs above Carrickfergus already?
Friends of the Earth objected to the proposed Larne gas caverns by claiming a one-off discharge of salt water would pollute the sea. Although judges threw that argument out, they might be persuaded to take a dimmer view of pumping seawater ashore.
The main thing to remember is that any case will be about the environment and accountability. It certainly will not be a cynical alliance of Nimby homeowners, angry farmers and activists with undeclared political agendas.
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Stormont inherited a 35,000 surplus of school places in 1999, or about 10% of school capacity, which it has since allowed to double. Closing schools, laying off teachers and ending duplication in a divided society is too daunting a task for elected representatives
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Sinn Féin has reinstated its Belfast councillor JJ Magee, having suspended him in November over allegations of exchanging inappropriate messages with a minor.
Welcoming him back into the fold, party chair Declan Kearney noted “decisions by both the PSNI and Social Services to take no action” and a finding by the Local Government Commissioner for Standards that Magee had not broken the Local Government Code.
This seems at odds with Sinn Féin’s firm parting of the ways last year with Niall O Donnghaile. The former senator was also investigated by police and social services over alleged inappropriate messages to a minor and no action was taken. He was not investigated by the Seanad, however, as he had resigned before the allegations came to light.
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Wrightbus has decided to manufacture a new range of electric buses and trucks in China, as it has no spare capacity at its Ballymena factory.
The company is thriving since it was rescued in 2019 by Jo Bamford, heir to the JCB empire. So it must know what it is doing, which is just as well. There is a long history of foreign vehicle manufacturers setting up production lines in China, only for their products to be cloned and sold by others at a fraction of the price.
Although high-end cars are the best known examples, JCB has not been immune. After an out-of-court settlement in 2010, the company said “this is the fourth incident this year of an Asian manufacturer copying one of our machines”.
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‘Intimidation points’ have been removed from the social housing application process by DUP communities minister Gordon Lyons, largely due to abuse of the system by paramilitaries. The change was advocated by Sinn Féin when it held the communities brief and almost every expert and organisation involved in social housing has called for it.
The announcement has been given a qualified welcome by most other parties but People Before Profit MLA Gerry Carroll expressed concern about those who have been genuinely “intimidated or subject to sectarian, racist or homophobic attacks”.
The idea behind the policy is that less paramilitary control will lead to less intimidation, of everyone. That is fine in theory but there are still going to be victims in practice. The challenge for Lyons is to find some way of acknowledging intimidation in the application process without reopening it to abuse.
Read more: ‘Intimidation points’ scrapped in housing selection
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The UVF is being ridiculed in east Belfast after intimidating a householder over a barking dog. The man had a gun held to his head but was able to push his assailants away. The frightening incident is being seen as a pathetic attempt by the gang to assert its authority.
Hopefully it is not too tasteless to point out that nobody should be arguing over barking dogs, now that beep/buzz collars can solve the problem humanely for less than £20. I have wondered why councils do not hand these devices out instead of going through the motions of threatening a fine. Perhaps certain ‘community organisations’ could hand them out instead, to demonstrate paramilitary transition.
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