Newton Emerson: Stormont had money for transport but spent it elsewhere

The traffic chaos that has snarled up Belfast in recent weeks reflects failures larger and older than lack of money.

But it is no coincidence that transport is one of the few policy areas where public spending in Northern Ireland is significantly less per head than in England - 74 per cent of England’s level, to be precise.

Looking closer at this figure, Stormont’s spends less than a fifth of what England spends on railways and only four-fifths of what it spends on roads (excluding local roads).

We do spend almost twice as much on buses, although most buses in England are privatised.

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Newton Emerson: Stormont had money for transport but spent it elsewhere

The lesser spending is worse than it appears because Northern Ireland usually needs to spend more than England to achieve the same standard of public services, due to different social and geographical factors.

An overall figure of 24 per cent more has been calculated by Stormont’s independent Fiscal Council, using a formula previously devised for Wales.

This is the basis of the so-called ‘fiscal floor’ the executive wants to negotiate as a new way to set its block grant.

Stormont still has enough funding to reach the floor, just about. It has been on a basic budget of 20 per cent above England for the last couple of years but extra cash from Westminster has made up the difference.

However, its budget was 40 per cent above England’s in the decade before and not much less for decades before that, meaning there is no excuse for long-term underinvestment in transport.

Stormont had the money and chose to spend it somewhere else.

If the executive is going to move to a fiscal floor budget – and the government seems amenable to the idea – there should be more interest in per head spending comparisons with England, as that is the premise of the arrangement.

It already provides an intriguing way to judge Stormont’s performance and priorities.

Official comparisons are produced by the Treasury and the figures in this article are from the 2022-23 financial year, the most recent available.

They show that apart from transport, the only other major policy area where we spend less than England is on environmental protection, which mainly covers waste management.

It does not cover the water system, which is privatised in England. Neglecting NI Water is another choice Stormont has made all on its own.

The obvious conclusion is that public transport, roads and the environment have been sacrificed to fund every other major category of public spending.

Examples include spending 31 per cent more than England on law and order, 16 per cent more on education and 6 per more cent on health.

While some of these figures are below the floor, the floor is an average and will be different for particular services.

Northern Ireland has a younger population than England, which should mean lower healthcare costs.

Perhaps the Fiscal Council should try calculating sets of floors to aid understanding.

Within each category there are some fascinating details.

On prisons, we spend only 89 per cent as much as England and have unique problems of paramilitarism and segregation, yet our prisons are ranked among the best in the UK. It appears this is an example of success.

On education, England spends about the same as us on primary and nursery schools and far more on secondaries.

Our higher spending on education overall is entirely due to spending three times more on ‘subsidiary services’, mostly administration and pupil transportation.

So an explanation as to why Stormont can spend more than England and still have a worse service appears, in this case at least, to be bureaucrats and taxis.

Welfare spending is not part of Stormont’s budget as the Treasury pays benefits directly. But comparative spending figures are still produced and worth noting.

Total benefit spending per head here is 22 per cent higher than in England, which is close enough to the floor to look right.

Within that, spending on sickness and disability benefits is double English levels, which indicates a serious problem. We cannot be twice as ill as the English, especially with a younger population.

Welfare remains a complex policy issue in Northern Ireland – it is devolved but still left to London, as Stormont is terrified to touch it.

The simplicity of Stormont’s other policy choices is only too clear.

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