Sinn Féin and the DUP are at pains to insist devolution is stable, despite recent scandals in Sinn Féin and ensuing acrimony between both parties.
There is every reason to believe them. In fact, devolution will become even more stable if Sinn Féin has a disappointing Irish general election, as opinion polls predict.
That would make it almost as dependent upon Stormont’s survival as the DUP, certainly until the next general election at the end of this decade.
Nevertheless, the past few weeks have revealed a stubborn sense of fragility around the institutions. There are also clearly people within republicanism and unionism who see opportunity in chaos and would be happy if the executive fell.
All of this serves as a reminder that Stormont reform cannot be allowed to slip off the agenda.
There was always a danger it would do so after devolution was restored but initial efforts were made to sustain it. The cause reached something of a high-water mark in March when Tánaiste Micheal Martin endorsed reform in a keynote address to Alliance’s annual conference.
He was unusually specific on the reforms he wanted to see, including an end to large-party vetoes and reversal of the St Andrews Agreement changes on appointing first and deputy first ministers.
Martin noted that the Good Friday Agreement requires itself to be reviewed and this process has been largely undelivered. The remainder of his speech was about the Shared Island programme, leaving no doubt the Irish government sees Stormont reform within an evolving constitutional context.
At that point, the UK’s Conservative government was preoccupied with its own demise. In June, Alliance leader Naomi Long said Labour must “shift the dial” on reform once in office.
After Labour’s victory the following month, SDLP MP Claire Hanna said reform might not be the government’s immediate priority but she was confident prime minister Keir Starmer understood the problem and the importance of resolving it.
Three months later, with effectively no comment from Downing Street or the Northern Ireland Office, it is easy to foresee the government deciding that because Stormont currently is stable, it should leave well enough alone.
Yet reform is not just about preventing collapse. It is about better government and normalising democracy. While the degree of consensus required by mandatory coalition may be admirable in theory, it delivers deadlock and lowest-common-denominator decision-making in practice.
The problem of how to bounce reform past an unwilling DUP and Sinn Féin was considered last year by Westminster’s all-party Northern Ireland Affairs Committee. It recommended the government hold a citizens’ assembly in Stormont’s absence.
However, as the committee observed, a reconvened Stormont is required to hold a citizens’ assembly itself every year under the 2020 New Decade, New Approach deal, on a subject chosen by the executive.
Sinn Féin and the DUP remain officially committed to this, claiming it was only held up by the pandemic and the 2022 collapse.
Forcing the two main parties to get on with it and choose reform as the subject would depend rather heavily on embarrassment. The DUP opposed mandatory coalition until it ceased to be Stormont’s largest party; Sinn Féin claims citizens’ assembly are the answer to everything, including a united Ireland.
Although both parties are shameless in their hypocrisy, they can be usefully thin-skinned when properly called out.
The hard slog of driving reform back up the agenda falls to Alliance, which has always supported reform and sought particular ownership of it during the last two collapses.
As the largest pro-reform party, it should seek to assemble a coalition of the SDLP, UUP and others, with support from government parties in Dublin, to press London, Sinn Féin and the DUP.
The undelivered reform process in the Good Friday Agreement and the New Decade, New Approach commitments both provide strong legal and political arguments for action.
But Alliance’s own enthusiasm seems to have flagged. Although reform was a vote-winner for the party during collapses, public interest has inevitably waned with restoration. It would be understandable if Alliance now saw reform as an unwise priority; the electorate has far more urgent concerns.
A good self-interested reason for Alliance to keep pushing reform is the persistent clamour for it to take a position on the border poll. Many of these calls must be mischievous, to put it kindly, given that such a decision would obviously and instantly halve the party’s support.
Stormont reform should be Alliance’s constitutional cause – a goal with the genuine potential to unite us all.