It is not surprising that renewed speculation about the emergence of unionist pacts has been growing since the seriously disappointing results suffered by the DUP in last summer’s UK general election.
The party managed to lose three of its eight Westminster seats, only retained another three by narrow margins, and cannot rule out the ominous prospect of being reduced to two MPs, or, on a really bad day, just one the next time round.
DUP figures might argue that the arrest of their former leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, who is due to stand trial later this year over sex charges which he denies, had a central impact on their 2024 campaign, and will feel that they are capable of regaining at least some votes over a period of time.
However, there are wider trends at work which they would be foolish to ignore, and the key question is whether they should be seeking to cobble together some back-room election deals or concentrate instead on producing a sustainable long-term strategy for unionism which might even include some form of party amalgamations.
Electoral cooperation is by far the most straightforward option, but, even in the outdated first-past-the-post system in a Westminster poll likely to be more than four years away, the DUP must know it would be in an exceptionally weak negotiating position if it raised the prospect that both of the two other main unionist parties should withdraw their candidates in a number of areas.
In an ideal world for the DUP, it would field the only unionist representative in East Belfast, where its leader Gavin Robinson is defending a majority of well under 3,000, East Antrim, where Sammy Wilson is barely 1,200 ahead, and most of all East Derry, where Gregory Campbell scraped home by 179 votes last July.
Providing trade-offs which would allow the Ulster Unionists and the Traditional Unionist Voice to support this outcome would be a tall order, particularly given the difficult relationships in place, but, as the two smaller groups only have one MP each, the obvious starting point for supporters of broader unionist unity would be to suggest that both Robin Swann and Jim Allister are unopposed by the DUP the next time round.
However, Swann has a comfortable advantage of almost 8,000 in South Antrim and will be confident of holding on whether or not the DUP is on the ballot paper, while meaningful negotiations involving Allister in North Antrim look even more remote at this stage.
The contest there was a hugely bitter one last July, before Allister recorded the most important victory of his political career for reasons which may well have had more to do with a rejection of Ian Paisley than an endorsement of the TUV.
Allister might be entitled to propose that he is given a clear run in North Antrim if TUV representatives stood down elsewhere, but, with his majority at less than 500, it remains fanciful that the DUP would ever agree to such an arrangement, regardless of whether Paisley, today attending Donald Trump’s Washington inauguration, attempts a dramatic comeback.
The alternative for the DUP is to go against the grain, quietly decide that liaisons with the TUV are ultimately counterproductive and instead focus on the achievable target of developing better understandings with the Ulster Unionists.
While all those involved in our devolved structures, including nationalists, unionists and the British government, have made considerable mistakes over recent years, the errors of judgment by the DUP have been the most striking.
Enthusiastically supporting the Brexit debacle and presiding over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal were major blunders, and attempting to step up its competition with the TUV for the backing of the declining cohort of hard-line, anti-power sharing unionists would reflect similarly flawed thinking.
Some DUP and TUV representatives have frequently and spectacularly lost the run of themselves during contrived discussions involving flags, the Irish language and above all the GAA.
Others in the DUP are surely well aware that these outbursts are not only embarrassing but are drawing their party into the kind of dead-end politics which can only favour the TUV.
There are essentially two strands within unionism – those who are committed to the cross-community administration at Stormont and those who believe it is somehow possible to turn back the clock to the days before the Good Friday Agreement.
The only forthcoming election which really matters here is for the Assembly in 2027, but any evidence that the DUP is prioritising relationships with the TUV before the next Westminster poll is hardly an encouraging sign for the Executive.
n.doran@irishnews.com