They say that if you stay in a job long enough you either get canonised or found out. In last week’s southern elections, Sinn Féin was found out.
Having had the job of opposing successive governments in the Dáil since 1997, the party was almost canonised two years ago with 36 per cent support in opinion polls. Last week that fell to 12 per cent.
Although it gained local council seats, the election results show that it lost two-thirds of its support in the past two years. Many of those opposed to the government switched their support from Sinn Féin to independent candidates. As a result, the government did no better, but Sinn Féin did much worse than expected
Unlike Sinn Féin, many independents had no national profile, little media presence and limited money and organisation. They received 28 per cent of the first reference votes – more than twice Sinn Féin’s share.
So where did it all go wrong?
The party’s crash resulted largely from practising populism rather than adopting consistent policies. It has made policy reversals on several issues and adopted contradictory positions on others. The problem was compounded by complacency (portraying itself as the government in waiting) and believing its own publicity.
Populism requires an accurate reading of the public mood. Sinn Féin failed to identify significant opposition to EU policy on agriculture and immigration. To cover its back, it became “EU critical” for this election (having previously opposed the EU, before becoming its most avid supporter).
Most rural independents strongly opposed EU agricultural and environmental policies. In Cork County Council they won 12 seats. Sinn Féin won one. In Galway County, Sinn Féin won two and independents won 13.
Sinn Féin also misread the mood on immigration. It initially welcomed immigrants, but when the level of public service provision did not keep pace with immigration, the public mood changed. Sinn Féin’s response to anti-immigrant protests was that they should happen outside government offices.
So it was against the government but no-one knew what its policy was on immigration.
As a result, Sinn Féin won 14 seats in Dublin City. Independents won 24.
Responsibility for all that lies with the party’s leadership. Rigid party discipline gets things done, but when the leadership does not know what it is doing, they tend to be the wrong things.
While Mary Lou McDonald is the party’s public face, some suggest that the real leadership lies elsewhere. Certainly Mary Lou’s low profile during the campaign did not help. A fortnight before polling she was in the US receiving an honorary degree and speaking at an Irish centre named after Fenian leader John Boyle O’Reilly.
She might have learned from O’Reilly’s poem Distance. In it he wrote that the world is large when distance separates two lovers, but “the world is small when your enemy is loose on the other side”. All her enemies were loose on the other side of the Atlantic while she was in the US and they happily highlighted her absence from electioneering.
In what should have been Mary Lou’s strongholds, the party won only one seat in Dublin’s north inner city and one in Cabra.
Sinn Féin got its election tactics wrong, but its real problem is that it has got its politics wrong. Like the IRA’s campaign, the party cloaks its lack of a political ideology under the blanket term of republicanism.
So what does republicanism mean in terms of a policy on health, education, welfare, the economy, or foreign policy? Is it left wing, centrist, or right wing?
The answer is that it is any or all of those things when the opportunity arises. And that’s not just this column’s view. Sinn Féin councillor John Hearne from Waterford said on his election “We are trying to be all things to all people” and “trying to be the new Fianna Fáil”.
The party has adopted a similar position in government in the north for the past 26 years, but sectarianism here gets them votes and compulsory coalition guarantees them power.
The southern election results show that the electorate is not sure what Sinn Féin stands for. The party does not appear to be too sure either
The southern election results show that the electorate is not sure what Sinn Féin stands for. The party does not appear to be too sure either. When you try to be all things to all people, you finish up being nothing to anybody.
Sinn Féin demanded change in last week’s elections. It failed because it does not realise that, like charity, change begins at home.
If Sinn Féin wants change, it must start by changing itself. Without a change of leadership, it is unlikely to recognise this.
