Patrick Murphy: The more things change, the more they stay the same

The Conservatives have gone and unionism is in disarray – that’s the story of the 2024 general election. However, behind the headlines, an analysis of the results throws up a more complex picture.

There is little evidence that Labour will be radically different from the Tories in many aspects of social and economic policy and while unionism here is hopelessly divided, the union is now in a much stronger position under Keir Starmer.

Welcome to an election result in which everything is not quite as it seems.

To Britain first, where the chaos of Tory rule has finally ended. It was not so much electoral defeat as political suicide, brought on by a huge parliamentary majority and the arrogance which accompanied it.

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The rapid turnover of incompetent prime ministers and a policy of unending austerity could only lead to defeat. Labour did not promise radical social and economic reform, just an end to the chaos and that was enough for a landslide victory.

However, this is not the Labour which introduced the welfare state in 1945. It is the New Labour of Tony Blair, who took Britain into two illegal wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Keir Starmer has praised Mrs Thatcher for effecting “meaningful change” and he has said that a border poll is not even on the horizon. He will be no friend of northern nationalism on constitutional issues and there is no guarantee of more money for Stormont.

Meanwhile, the collapse of the Scottish National Party has pushed Scottish independence off the agenda. Reports of the death of the United Kingdom have been greatly exaggerated.

While the British electorate voted for change (although it may not be as great as they expect), we stuck to the same old sectarianism. The party which imposed austerity in Britain was kicked out, but the parties which implemented that austerity in Stormont were largely returned.

Those who suffer most from inequality here tend to use sectarianism as a comfort blanket to deal with their hardship.

The big losers were the DUP. Having originally claimed that the Irish Sea border was not so bad, the party then admitted that it was very bad indeed.

Jeffrey Donaldson put them in that position and, in the worst pre-election publicity for any candidate since Charles Stewart Parnell, he appeared in court on the eve of polling day. Like Parnell he brought his party down with him.

Despite that, Starmer’s proposed closer ties with the EU will reduce the impact of the Irish Sea border. However, while the union is stronger, unionism itself is weaker. It has no strategic direction or coherent political philosophy.

The DUP lost both North Antrim and South Antrim – one to the hardline TUV and one to the moderate UUP. This suggests that unionism is now based more on personalities than policies.

Traditionally it only needed a flag to get elected, so it has no history of political analysis or social and economic policy formulation. As a result it has never been much good at politics and this election shows it is not much good at unionism either.

Unionism has never been much good at politics and this election shows it is not much good at unionism either

Flag-waving electioneering has now been taken over by nationalism. Although Sinn Féin issued a policy-free manifesto and refuses to attend Westminster, its electoral support increased.

During 25 years in government at Stormont, the party has jointly presided over the collapse of the NHS, education, social services and infrastructure. It has hobnobbed with British royalty and met Joe Biden in the White House while he supplied arms for Israeli genocide in Gaza.

Sectarianism overcame all that and nationalism, like unionism before it, is now a policy-free zone. North and West Belfast are among the worst areas of deprivation in the UK. Both returned Sinn Féin candidates.

Stating that the party is now the biggest at (but not in) Westminster is a bit like identifying the tallest teacher in the school, while ignoring the needs of the children. In this election, children did not feature.

The politician doing most for them was SDLP councillor Paul Doherty, who has expanded his West Belfast foodbank to include a breakfast club to help struggling families feed their children over the summer.

Previously families received £27 per child per fortnight during the summer, but the collapse of Stormont’s executive ended that. The parties which make up the new executive won 14 of the north’s 18 Westminster seats. None of them mentioned child hunger.

All of which supports the view that the more things change, the more they stay the same.