Ireland is facing a general election within the next 10 months, and those of us who pay attention to the longer-term trends in Irish politics wonder what impact the results will have on debate about political realignments.
In the main, this debate has only focused on the Republic, with next to no attention to what role any northern parties could play in this important conversation.
I watched with interest the Labour conference in Dublin last weekend, where the party leader, Ivana Bacik, called for the next government to establish a department to begin planning for Irish unity, as she told her delegates that a unity referendum would happen at some point in the future. This is a welcome call from Labour and does show the growing interest in the conservation of the constitutional future of the island.
Yet, as was pointed out on social media, will Labour be in any position to deliver any of this given the state of its polling in the Republic? To be honest, this question can be asked of other parties of the left, with the Greens and Social Democrats all polling around the 3-6 per cent range.
If we are talking about realignment, then surely something that will have to be discussed is the future of some of these parties either coming together or forming closer alliances to enhance their positions. Fighting over shrinking political real estate does nothing to help any of these parties. Holly Cairns in the Social Democrats and Ivana Bacik have common cause on a host of policy areas and could quite easily work together to achieve the many things they agree upon.
This realignment conversation should include another party, the SDLP. Since 2022, it has been lagging in the polls as Sinn Féin and Alliance form a pincer movement on its support from different political angles. A pitch that the SDLP is trying to resurrect itself on for the future is that it is the movement for a New Ireland.
To give this some added legs, the party needs to be part of something beyond the confines of Northern Ireland. Likewise, if Labour is going to gain further traction with its unity ideas, it needs something new and fresh.
There is a political space for a broad social democratic movement on this island, north and south. If Eastwood and Bacik are right, there will be a referendum on the issue of unity at some stage in the future, which will require more all-island vehicles than Sinn Féin.
The SDLP attempted a partnership with Fianna Fáil in 2019, but it went nowhere and did not achieve many of its aims. What I am proposing here is not a simple repeat of this experiment.
Instead, the inevitable realignment conversation between the Social Democrats and Labour should include the SDLP. It makes little sense, north or south, for three different vehicles to essentially occupy the same space when they agree on so many issues.
A combined political vehicle that includes Gary Gannon, Claire Hanna and Aodhán Ó Ríordáin would be a formidable political force that could not only shake up the southern political system but also forge a new dynamic on the unity front.
It makes little sense, north or south, for three different vehicles to essentially occupy the same space when they agree on so many issues
As the debate about Irish unity moves into new terrain and has stepped up, so do the political vehicles we need to achieve a referendum. Making good on the pledges for planning and preparation requires parties with the electoral strength to deliver on them. That’s why bringing together the talent within these parties makes so much sense electorally and strategically.
In a New Ireland, we are going to have to reconsider much of our current political infrastructure. Listening to the Labour leader on Saturday make the compelling case for the next Irish government to begin preparing for a referendum also brings home the real need for new political vehicles on this island to drive this debate forward.
Following the next general election, hopefully, conversations can begin about the way ahead for social democracy on this island. One thing is for sure: if it’s all island in nature, the New Ireland movement can only benefit from it.
