The latest polls show that Simon Harris’s party has a comfortable lead over any others, with reports suggesting some Fine Gael TDs are saying it would be “madness” to miss the chance of an early election and drag the three-party coalition to the maximum possible term in March of next year.
A Sunday Times poll published last weekend shows Fine Gael now sitting with a comfortable lead at 24%, with Fianna Fáil on 20% and Sinn Féin at 18%.
An autumn election must look very tempting.
Although previously refusing to engage in the question of election timing and insisting the government would run to full term, the taoiseach has now said he will hold talks with his coalition partners after the budget.
With a dark winter ahead and any number of issues potentially cropping up in the meantime, reaching the maximum term might not seem as important any more. A week is a long time in politics and six months is an eternity.
Whether or not Harris decides to go for a pre-Christmas election or to hold off to the spring, all parties are preparing and the campaigning has begun, perhaps not in earnest, but certainly the candidates have made their way to the starting line and the warming up is well underway.
At the moment the government is gearing up to announce its final budget on October 2, likely to be generous as a surplus creates some breathing room.
The expected Apple billions are giving politicians and policy-makers some space for fiscal blue-sky thinking, and the energy spike from Simon Harris taking up the role of taoiseach is continuing. As good a time as any to ask for judgement, you might say.
It’s not all straightforward for Harris though. If he calls an election there would undoubtedly be questions as to whether he had made a u-turn as he had repeated ad nauseum that the government would run for its full term from the moment that he was appointed as taoiseach.
It could become an election talking point, or (more likely) it could be one day of awkward questions before the true campaigning would take over.
Aside from that though, Simon Harris knows that whether or not his party has a good day at the polls, the Fine Gael parliamentary party will soon look very different.
Around half of current Fine Gael TDs will not stand at the next election for a variety of reasons. This means that up and down the country new candidates have been selected from local councils and from among the party faithful.
This new cohort of hopefuls now need to raise their profiles and convince Fine Gael voters that they deserve the same loyalty as the old faces who are departing, many of whom have been stalwart familiars for many years.
These new faces would probably be glad of a few extra months to get out there and shake a few hands.
It’s a strange scenario for a party that has been in government for almost 14 years not to have a clear incumbency advantage, but here we are.
Another consideration for Harris is that an extended run-up to the general election is likely to benefit Sinn Féin more than any other at this stage.
Sitting at 18% in the most recent poll will be disappointing for the party, as it sees its results decline still further from the dizzying heights of the mid-30s of last year.
Add this to underwhelming results in the local and European elections at the beginning of the summer and it’s Mary Lou McDonald’s party who have the most to benefit from a few more months to regroup and plan.
Sinn Féin’s recent announcements of a major new housing policy and a plan to drastically reduce the cost of childcare demonstrate that the party is most definitely on an election footing and determined to turn the tide.
It’s done it before, of course. In the 2019 local elections the party had a disastrous day, followed shortly after by its best performance ever at the general election just a few months later.
Whether it can pull off another turnaround in electoral support remains to be seen, but it definitely can’t be discounted.
Simon Harris has been clear, consistent and almost dogmatic about this government running to full term. Whether that’s the wisest move is another thing.