In a piece for this newspaper on March 30 (’Here’s a job for you, Leo – lead a campaign for unity’), I suggested that Leo Varadkar might be tempted to devote a few years of his post-taoiseach career to “leading a brand new, broad-based campaign for the reunification of Ireland”.
It seemed a reasonable and attractive proposition for him, not least because being away from elective and party politics would make it easier to build the sort of campaign coalition that could address all of the pre-reunification issues he has mentioned in passing down the years.
Crucially, it would also provide a vehicle for other political/electoral/civic/business/establishment et al sectors who have been and would probably remain reluctant to get involved with any vehicle led by or heavily influenced by Sinn Féin.
I have talked to people over the years on both sides of the border – people who could be described as biddable on Irish unity – who won’t or can’t be won over by Sinn Féin on the issue.
In many cases it’s because they believe the party carries too much baggage in terms of its IRA connections; and in other cases it’s because they believe it will be much more difficult to win over unionists (even those who are small-u and/or in favour of a route back into membership of the EU) if Sinn Féin is the main vehicle of persuasion.
And I can understand that. Not least because I cannot take seriously the assurances by some in the party that they are committed to finding ‘accommodation’ for unionists and unionism in a ‘new’ Ireland.
But what about a project led by someone like Varadkar and with no input from Sinn Féin’s leadership? Would it be able to reach out to a much broader range of demographics across Ireland, as well as tapping into potential support from elements of both unionism and that small-n wing of nationalism in Northern Ireland which isn’t exactly desperate to sever the UK link; especially if the risks might still be considered too high?
The problem with Sinn Féin – although I have no specific objection to its unity project – is that I think it sees unity as a purely numbers thing. In other words, 50% + 1 is all that matters. Which is fine in one sense, because a border poll outcome will be determined by a simple majority.
But unless the win is on the back of a mountain of other issues having been resolved then we end up with a post-Brexit scenario and ‘a terrible state o’ chassis’.
So, I wasn’t entirely surprised when Varadkar used the opportunity of a speech in Derry last Thursday to up the ante and encourage all the parties at the coming general election to include a section on unity in their manifestos, to make unity “not just an aspiration but an objective”, and to strengthen the Shared Island unit.
And while accepting that 50 plus one is enough, he noted “but it’s not what we want and that’s why I think we need, as much as possible, to co-design what that New Ireland looks like (with) people north and south and then people from the British unionist community as well”.
It was no coincidence, either, that he was making the speech at a meeting of the SDLP’s New Ireland Commission, or that Colum Eastwood – about to be freed from the pressures of leadership – said he would be “relentlessly focussed” on the New Ireland: “For me, that is the most exciting thing you could be doing in politics. That is the next decade of opportunities we have.”
He and Varadkar will both be speaking at the SDLP’s conference this weekend.
It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that something is stirring in the Irish unity undergrowth: something that will involve a new vehicle and campaign led from the centre rather than by Sinn Féin.
I’ve always thought that it was an advantage for unionism that Sinn Féin was seen to be the most serious voice for unity: and that’s because the party was limited in its overall appeal on the issue.
But a new vehicle, with buy-in from the political/electoral/civic sectors which Sinn Féin was always going to find difficulty reaching, presents a much more difficult challenge for unionism.
Particularly if it focusses on persuading the UK and Irish governments to put in stone the terms and conditions for a border poll; and if the next Irish government commits itself to serious, thought-through planning and preparation for that poll and its possible aftermath.
I don’t want to over-egg what seems to me to be happening right now but, as I say, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that something very significant may be on the move. It may be long-term stuff, but even long-term can move quite fast.
I’ve always thought that it was an advantage for unionism that Sinn Féin was seen to be the most serious voice for unity