So far in these weekly looks at local parties the ones examined - People Before Profit, SDLP and UUP - have been irrelevant to the big picture. This week it’s Alliance’s turn.
In one respect Alliance is also irrelevant, but in another respect it’s crucial. As far as the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement – in effect the north’s constitution – are concerned, Alliance is irrelevant because the GFA is predicated on the theories of consociationalism, in our case two politico-ethnic communities, unionist and nationalist.
As you’ve read here before, Alliance’s view of the north is a category error. Although the party is an ardent supporter of the GFA, in contradiction to that support Alliance does not subscribe to the GFA’s basic premise: two communities sharing power. Thus in any major decision at the Stormont assembly, Alliance, which designates as ‘other’, is irrelevant. The party cannot play a full part in the operation of the GFA.
However, in the event of a reunification referendum Alliance voters will play a crucial role. There’s a new book being published next month which takes a deep dive into Alliance and its role in the north’s politics. It’s called ‘The Alliance Party of Northern Ireland: Beyond Unionism and Nationalism’. It’s a collection of essays with the lead author being Professor John Tonge, now the pre-eminent inquisitor of the north’s parties. It’ll hardly be a runaway best seller for it costs £99.
Thanks to work Tonge has already published we know an extraordinary amount about Alliance. We know that the party has 1,200 members, concentrated in Antrim and Down, but mainly in the greater Belfast area, no surprise since that’s where most of the Alliance vote comes from. We also know that the membership is overwhelmingly middle-class and comfortably well off. The largest slice of its members has an annual household income over £70,000, well above the north’s median of under £30,000.
One unexpected finding from Tonge’s work is that, contrary to its public media image, Alliance party members are quite elderly: 43% over 65 while only 12% are under 30. Another unexpected finding was that 38% favour Irish reunification and 55% agree there will “probably” be a united Ireland plus 17% agree strongly. We also know that Alliance voters strongly opposed Brexit and strongly swung from the DUP in places like Lagan Valley.
The anti-Brexit vote seems to have accounted for what was called the ‘Alliance surge’ in 2019. What we don’t know is to what extent support for Irish reunification is driven by the prospect of automatically rejoining the EU. Hostility to the DUP has remained. At the last assembly election, 54% of Alliance second preferences went to SDLP (33%), SF (15%) and other united Ireland parties while 6% went to the DUP.
The anti-Brexit, anti-DUP surge brought Alliance from years of sitting on 8-9% to a heady 18.5% in the last Euro election here and settling around 15% now. It seems the surge is over with recent polls showing Alliance stuck at that 15%.
July’s Westminster election wasn’t good for Alliance. Although they won a Westminster seat their share of the vote was down on 2019. With the DUP at sixes and sevens and challenged by the TUV they were expected to do better. Nevertheless, the party is in the strongest position it’s ever been in: 15% is nearly twice as much as they used to poll.
The crucial question is: in the event of a referendum on reunification where will Alliance’s 15% or 115,000-120,000 votes go? How will they divide? Which way will Alliance advise its members and supporters to vote?
Perhaps a more imminent question is: if there’s a proposal in the next assembly, which is very likely, to request that the British government call a referendum on reunification, which way will Naomi Long advise her MLAs to vote? Abstain? Free vote? Up to that point she can run but then she can’t hide.
