On the most recent edition of Sunday Politics on BBC Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionist leader, Doug Beattie, was asked about whether his party will forgo its place in the Executive and lead the official opposition at Stormont when the institutions are restored.
There is speculation that the mood within sections of the party is to take up the sole ministerial position it is entitled to under the D’Hondt process. However, this would be a mistake and something that not only would hurt the UUP but also the necessary scrutiny that any new government needs.
The UUP has only opted to sit in opposition briefly from 2015-2017, and only a few months of that time was it recognised as an opposition within the assembly. The party has never had the proper time or space to make this role its own. It has never had a chance to properly create an image that is one of holding the Executive to account and proposing new policy ideas that can give it some much-needed definition in the eyes of the public.
All of this can only be done from the opposition benches. We have seen time and again the UUP attempting to do this from within the Executive and failing to do so. Since 2011, the party has only held one solo ministry, which has seen it relegated in influence within government and struggle to develop a brand outside of the bigger parties.
To its credit, the UUP can boast of some political bravery. In 2007 and 2020, it took the health department when other and less politically difficult options were available. Robin Swann, in poll after poll, was consistently ranked as the most popular politician in Northern Ireland. For just under two years, he was the face of our local response to the Covid-19 pandemic. The UUP placed his image on posters and featured his work prominently in campaign literature. Yet come election day, outside of North Antrim, it yielded the party no extra votes and it returned with a lower vote share and fewer seats.
The harsh reality is whilst pundits like me will recognise brave political decisions such as taking difficult jobs in the Executive, the public simply does not and is not rewarding the UUP for entering government. What supporters see as relevance, the public sees as being a political mudguard. It is simply confusing to members of the public to hear smaller parties criticise the Executive that they are a member of.
There is an element of the political unknown for the party in going into opposition, but we have a set of election results for the UUP that shows going into the Executive is not halting its decline, even when it is in high-profile roles with popular ministers.
If devolution is restored, we need an effective and diverse opposition that can hold a new Executive to account for the big reforms that will be required. The SDLP, alongside Jim Allister and Gerry Carroll, will be strengthened by having the ranks of the UUP added in trying to make this endeavour of opposition a success.
Following the 2017 election, there was a narrative that wrote off opposition as a failure. Yet could we honestly say that we would have had the political pressure put on the Executive over RHI had the UUP, SDLP and Alliance parties not been in opposition seeking answers to important questions? The fact that the then Executive faltered so quickly is a testament in part to how effective the opposition was.
The harsh reality is whilst pundits like me will recognise brave political decisions such as taking difficult jobs in the Executive, the public simply does not and is not rewarding the UUP for entering government
I know the old saying that being the leader of the opposition is the worst job in politics, but the UUP needs to see this as the most necessary job in local politics if it wants to make a substantive contribution to our society over the next three years. The public is crying out for a new way of doing government in Northern Ireland and having an effective opposition is important for achieving that.
The UUP has tried to make being in the Executive work and the simple reality is that it has not. We are going to have an official opposition when Stormont returns – is the UUP going to lead it? Or be the fourth party in what will essentially be a three-party Executive?