TikTok taoiseach may soon have all the responsibility and none of the authority – Ursula Savage

Simon Harris played the long game when it came to the leadership of Fine Gael. Making his intentions known quietly and consistently among the party grassroots, he left no doubt that when the vacancy opened up, he would make a bid for it.

Never going as far as an outright push against Varadkar, Harris knew that the day would come when his tenure would end and he would have his support in place, ready to go, with councillors, backbench TDs and government ministers all declaring their support within 24 hours.

But even with the considerable extent of Simon Harris’s visibility on social media – attracting the moniker of ‘TikTok Taoiseach’ – there remains much speculation as to what he stands for, what policy positions he has that differ to those of his predecessor, and what changes he would make if he was given free rein. Time will tell? To a certain extent.

The first major decision for Harris is the extent of his cabinet reshuffle. With his expected appointment as Taoiseach on April 9 there will of course be his position of Minister of Higher Education to fill. It remains to be seen whether he will use this opportunity to make a bigger splash with a full reshuffle, or opt for minimal changes for now and maintain, as much as can be, the status quo.

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The initial instinct for someone new to the job would be to appoint allies to key positions, reward loyalty, sideline potential threats, and introduce eye-catching policies to show that there is a new boss in charge.

Chance would be a fine thing. His unopposed appointment as party leader will seem straightforward compared to the challenge of becoming leader of a coalition government. A coalition, moreover, that is in the final year of its programme for government and has been notable so far for its longevity rather than any great policy successes.

At the time of Varadkar’s announcement, the opposition parties made some noise about the democratic legitimacy of a change of leadership at this stage in the government’s mandate, but the structures allow for it and, as both Micheál Martin and Eamon Ryan were quick to point out, the coalition was made between parties and not between individuals.

What the structures don’t easily allow for, and what the other coalition parties would be unlikely and unwise to tolerate, would be any dramatic departure from the agreed programme for government. The leaders of Fianna Fáil and the Green Party have made it clear that the coalition will continue because the road map remains in place, even if the driver has changed. A complete overhaul of the Fine Gael ministerial team along with sweeping changes in policy direction could run the risk of challenging the goodwill of coalition partners in their accommodating approach to the unexpected turn of events.

Although it seems likely that this late-stage leadership change will, in fact, delay a general election (as Harris will want as much time under his belt as possible before going to the polls), the handover also clearly denotes the beginning of the end for the current government. The focus of ministers for the next year will be implementing whatever policies are feasible within the scant timeframe left to them and all of the political parties will soon be so pre-occupied with the local and European elections (with one eye on the general election).

Harris will be essentially being seeing out Varadkar’s plans and facing the challenges his predecessor decided he no longer wanted to deal with. In the words of The Who, “Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss”

Added to these considerations, 11 Fine Gael TDs have already announced that they will not be standing at the next election, increasing the pressure on the grassroots to select new candidates who can build enough of a profile before the next polling day.

All in all, Simon Harris does not have a clean slate with which to enter the office of taoiseach and put his stamp on things. Although responsibility for the party’s performance in the local, European and eventually general election will be his, the scope of his influence to make the changes he would like to is limited by circumstance and timing.

In the meantime, Harris will be essentially being seeing out Varadkar’s plans and facing the challenges his predecessor decided he no longer wanted to deal with. In the words of The Who, “Here comes the new boss, same as the old boss.”