Voters in the Republic will soon be electing members to the 34th Dáil Éireann. The first Dáil was formed in the era of my grandparents, so it’s within touching history.
These elections are important because they will shape the future direction for the country, south and north of the border.
The winds of good fortune may change for Ireland, particularly in light of the incoming Trump administration. Ireland’s principled stance on Palestine may cost it friends in high places when it comes to foreign direct investment.
Therefore, links with the EU have never been more crucial.
Far right, anti-immigration and isolationist voices have been heard across Ireland.
No country is absolutely sovereign - the world is an interdependent place.
Those who think Ireland’s future is about ultra-nationalism, racial purism and political insularity are lame-brained dolts who can see no further than their own bigotry.
The entrance of candidates with known links to criminality is an insult to those who fought for and founded the Irish state.
Polls are increasingly unpredictable – except for Northern Ireland, where tribalism is so entrenched that feudal loyalties makes forecasting more reliable.
As things currently stand, there appears to be no great heave against the current coalition – though the Green Party are likely to get roasted.
But why should there be anyhow?
Ireland is a wealthy, prosperous country. Issues around health and housing are not peculiar to Ireland. The economic publicly-funded basket case that is Northern Ireland makes Albania look like a super power.
Sinn Féin has traditionally been a party of protest. There are in fact two Sinn Féins on the island of Ireland.
In the north, they are in office but not really in power. The northern administration is simply a large county council with pretensions of grandeur granted to it by that edifice of historical unionist supremacy, Stormont.
Sinn Féin and their main coalition partner, the DUP, have vetoed each other out of office for a total of five of the last seven years.
In the south, Sinn Féin cut their teeth as the party of opposition. They performed so well, they could almost smell victory in 2024.
But as Harold McMacmillan pointed out and as Mary Lou McDonald has now discovered, the greatest challenges for any politician are “Events, dear boy, events”.
And the past 12 months have been more than eventful for Sinn Féin.
The party decried not getting to form a coalition in 2020 – but coalition governments aren’t formed by wishful thinking. As the saying goes, it takes two to tango and Sinn Féin, despite its stunning results, found no one willing to take to the floor.
What once looked like a racing certainty, that the Sinn Féin president could become the first female taoiseach, now looks less assured.
Taking a cue from the bookies and not the polls, Sinn Féin’s odds on forming the next government stand at a very generous 14/1 (BTW it’s the same odds for them being part of any other government formation).
The TikTok taoiseach, Simon Harris, is proving he has more energy than Tigger and voters appear to be warming towards him (Not a huge task after his diffident and aloof predecessor).
In the Irish electoral system, the retirement of so many long-standing Fine Gael TDs could be an Achilles heel in transfers.
Micheál Martin carries the role of statesman well and at times, looks like the only adult in the room. Whether he can translate personal popularity to his party remains to be seen.
But Fianna has been slowly managing change towards a younger generation. From a northern perspective, its Fianna Fáil who have put more on the table in terms of investing substantially into its shared island initiative.
Four days to go and as Tigger said, “Buddy, if you are going to pounce, you’ve got to have some bounce!”
That momentum seems to be with Harris and Martin.