In any normal society there would be no doubt about the outcome of the tussle for the United States presidency between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Out of his depth when he inhabited the Oval Office, Trump’s decline since is clear for all to see – all, that is, except the 50 per cent of voters who say he is their preferred candidate.
Yes, it appears to be that close.
It would take more than a page in The Irish News to explore the reasons why an insurgent former president who speaks the language of totalitarianism is in such a strong position in the polls.
You will be familiar with the famous quote attributed to Abraham Lincoln (also a Republican): “You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all the people all of the time.” If only that were so.
In a fortnight’s time we will know if the US electorate has seen through Trump’s lies and deceits. Like many watching the election on this side of the Atlantic, I am hoping for the best and fearing the worst.
I hope reports that ‘supporters’ are being paid to attend Trump’s rallies is true; I take heart when I hear of people leaving rallies early, or when I see that Harris’s ratings for TV appearances are higher than Trump’s. I pray that Taylor Swift, Lizzo and Usher’s endorsement of Harris will cut through with voters.
But I know now to suspect every bit of information being fed to me through platforms like Twitter – not only because I may have created by own echo chamber there, but because the platform itself has been corrupted by its owner Elon Musk.
Like my namesake, Doubting Thomas, until I see the exit polls and the votes cast, until I see the make-up of the electoral college, until I see Donald of Orange vanquished, I will not believe that Harris has prevailed.
The fatal flaw in the US electoral system is the electoral college. It, not the people, elects the president. As we saw with George W Bush and Trump, the college can, and will, elect a president who does not command the popular vote.
Bush was helped over the line by the Supreme Court. It could not be trusted then to protect the constitution; today – now it has become an offshoot of Trump Inc – it is an active part of the conspiracy to subvert democracy.
Although the focus is on the two key players, there is more at stake on November 5 than who gets the White House. The entire House of Representatives is up for election alongside a third of the Senate.
A convincing win for Harris has the capacity to change the complexion of the legislative branch - if voters swing to the Democrats. As well as making it easier for her to get things done, it would also give her room to face down the fetid Supreme Court which badly needs reform.
Her victory needs to be convincing for another reason too. Trump is actively eroding confidence in the ballot. When Biden won, we saw an incumbent president doing all he could to subvert the result.
The whirlwind Trump unleashed on January 6 2021 should have been enough to disqualify him from office. This time around he has had four years to corrupt the electoral system, placing election deniers in key positions in swing states, and preparing the ground for another coup attempt.
In that he has been aided by Russia and China. Both have been exploiting the election to destabilise the US, with many figures on the right (including Trump) mouthing Putin’s propaganda.
It could be argued that the United States is the author of its own misfortune. Why should we care what happens there? It’s for Americans to decide whether they want to be represented by an orange man-baby.
But this election is consequential for us all. Clearly unhinged, Trump will enter the White House unrestrained.
First time around, there were adults in the room – advisers and cabinet members who mitigated his excesses. They have now all gone, many actively warning of the dangers of a second Trump presidency. But is America listening?
Ukraine will be sacrificed, Netanyahu will be given an even freer hand, and Putin will play Trump for the fool that he is.
America will take a turn towards a patriarchal theocracy, and the world will be an immeasurably more unstable place.
Like many watching the election on this side of the Atlantic, I am hoping for the best and fearing the worst