TUV challenge to DUP gives unionists a stark choice: David McCann

I did not really believe it until I saw it.

For months, pundits and analysts wondered whether the TUV would ever fulfil its promise to stand in many seats held by DUP MPs and provide a real challenge to the main party of unionism.

For years, the TUV has either sat out general elections or not put up much of a fight in the seats that it did contest.

Yet in 2024, the party will mount its most high-profile campaign since 2010, running 13 candidates across Northern Ireland.

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Not only will it be running in safe seats such as North Antrim, but in areas that will directly damage the DUP – East Belfast, North Belfast, South Antrim, and Lagan Valley in particular. A whole swag of seats that will make the DUP’s pathway to victory harder and threaten its position as the lead party at Westminster.

With recent developments over the DUP’s return to Stormont and the TUV’s continuing opposition to the Irish Sea border, unionist voters have one of the starkest choices.

Do they continue with the DUP under Gavin Robinson or take a risk in backing the TUV, which would send a protest message but, in many seats, could help elect the Alliance Party in places once regarded as solid heartlands for unionism?

For the TUV, this election is about sending a message about something it believes is fundamental to it. We can debate the virtues and merits of its arguments, but with its candidate announcement, what is not in doubt is its conviction in taking these ideas to the electorate.

The TUV could have run a more minimalist campaign as it has done in the past, but it is fielding the most candidates at a Westminster election in the party’s history.

This strategy is not without risks. Suppose the party falls flat in constituency after constituency, and the DUP sees off its challenge again. In that case, it will have bolstered Gavin Robinson as the leader of unionism and produced yet another electoral setback that would be hard to rebound from.

The debate about vote splitting within unionism misses a more fundamental point: the shrinking electoral real estate in which the various parties within unionism find themselves.

The rise of the Alliance Party in the eastern constituencies of Northern Ireland has sent a wrecking ball through the coalition that was propping up many DUP MPs.

Look at 2019. The fact that Stephen Farry was able to win North Down from a standing start tells its own story about the decline that the various unionist parties have faced since 2015.

The fact that the TUV’s entrance into this race has caused such a stir tells its own story about how much trouble party unionism is in when it comes to other parts of Northern Ireland.

Whatever the result of this election, there will need to be some serious soul-searching across the spectrum about how things have gone so wrong so quickly for a shade of opinion that easily commanded a majority of Northern Ireland seats at Westminster.

On a very bad day, unionism could lose two seats. One-time bastions such as East Belfast and Lagan Valley could fall to Alliance. Close contests could become the norm in places like Strangford, as potential decline and new boundaries make the constituency more interesting.

All analysts will be watching how unionists vote in this election very closely. The TUVs’ prominent presence in this race has the potential to weaken the DUP to levels we have not seen for more than two decades. It also has the potential to deliver strong wins for Alliance and Sinn Féin.

For unionism, this election is likely to be the most consequential vote at a Westminster level they will make since 2005

Should the latter happen, what will be the implications for party unionism going forward in terms of how it deals with the Irish Sea border and, linked to that, the long-term stability of the Executive?

For unionism, this election is likely to be the most consequential vote at a Westminster level they will make since 2005.

What direction should the pro-union forces go, and who should lead them? All of this is up for grabs on July 4.