When a party changes leader multiple times within a short period, as has been the case for the Conservatives in England or the DUP or Ulster Unionists closer to home, it would suggest the problem lies with the party and not the unfortunate figure at the helm at any given point.
The timing of Doug Beattie’s departure came as something of a surprise, but it follows firmly in a pattern of UUP leaders lasting only two or three years before electoral realities or internal strife inevitably result in an attempted reboot.
The revolving door on Belfast’s Belmont Road has seen Mr Beattie, Steve Aiken and Robin Swann all take turns at the wheel since Mike Nesbitt stepped down following a disappointing assembly performance in 2017. Prior to Mr Nesbitt, Tom Elliott and Sir Reg Empey had also tried but failed to reverse a shift in support to the DUP under David Trimble.
Mr Beattie’s resignation actually followed a measure of success in the recent Westminster poll, with the party back on the green seats of the House of Commons for the first time in seven years after Mr Swann defeated Paul Girvan in South Antrim.
However, it failed to capitalise more generally on the DUP’s troubles and a decision to co-opt Colin Crawford to the former health minister’s assembly seat seems to have been a source of recent tension.
In his statement, Mr Beattie cited “irreconcilable differences between myself and party officers combined with the inability to influence and shape the party going forward”.
This strongly speaks of frustration that the former army officer was unable to bring the party along the path he believes is required to revive its fortunes.
Squeezed on one flank by a confident Alliance Party and by unionist rivals on the other, the once-dominant party of Northern Ireland politics has struggled to deliver a clear message to voters.
Following dalliances with the Tories and even the SDLP, under Mr Beattie it has sought to project a more progressive, modern image, a shift some party figures are perhaps not comfortable with.
The next leader – the fifth in little over seven years – will be faced with the same questions that have dogged all his or her predecessors: what does the UUP really stand for? What differentiates it from other unionist parties? What reason is there for people to give it their vote instead of Alliance or the DUP?
The famous quote attributed to Albert Einstein that the ‘definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results’ should be the first item for discussion at the next meeting of the UUP’s venerable party officers.
