Today is the 30th anniversary of the Provisional IRA ceasefire. In 1994, after their “inevitable” 25-year war for ‘Brits Out’, the IRA decided that the Brits could stay after all and that Sinn Féin would administer the north on their behalf.
It was hardly surprising therefore that the anniversary is passing without much celebration. Thirty years later there are no crowded black taxis on the Falls Road with tricolours waving and horns blaring. Today there is just the grim reality of Stormont’s abdication of responsibility, reflected in the poverty, the growing number of food banks, the 47,000 waiting to be housed and the 500,000 on health waiting lists.
While much of the analysis of events in the past 60 years has centred on the IRA’s claim that the war was necessary (it wasn’t), much less attention has been paid to its strategy in the peace talks. That strategy was certainly not necessary.
It might have been reasonably expected that those claiming to be Irish republicans would have argued for a new society, based on the unity of Catholic, Protestant and dissenter.
Instead, the IRA decided that Sinn Féin would represent only Catholics and the unionist parties could represent Protestants. Rather than pursue the republican tradition of Connolly, Mellows or Frank Ryan, the IRA echoed Daniel O’Connell’s campaign for Catholic emancipation. As in the war, post-ceasefire nationalism was to be exclusively Catholic.
So it was not just the violence which did the sectarian damage – the peace process concreted that damage in Stormont’s formal systems and structures. As a result, Stormont’s in-built sectarianism deflected from investment in housing, health, welfare and education. In the much-praised peace talks, there was no demand from any party, least of all the IRA, for even an initial investment package to restore a war-ravaged society and economy.
The Troubles began in a welfare state and ended in Tony Blair’s Thatcherism. So which of those two societies did the parties wish to adopt? No-one asked and no-one noticed.
By deciding to represent only Catholics, it followed that SF’s electoral strategy would inevitably be sectarian. The unionist parties adopted the same electoral approach. For electoral success, there was no need for either major partner to deliver on social and economic issues. Both eventually topped the polls.
As a result, there is no relationship today between performance in government and electoral support. This newspaper recently reported that no social houses were built in South Down in the past two years. In the Westminster election, SF increased its majority there by 7,500 votes, even though the party did not produce an election manifesto.
Fermanagh-South Tyrone and Mid-Ulster, the two constituencies with the lowest rate of social house building in the past five years, also returned Sinn Féin MPs with increased majorities.
Just as the English administration in the 15th century was confined to the Pale around Dublin, Stormont’s health system is now the new NHS Pale around Belfast
SF’s sectarian electioneering allows it to fail massively on social and economic issues without any fear of losing power. Stormont’s record on housing is much worse than that of successive Dublin governments, but few in the south know enough about the north to notice.
Stormont’s neglect of public services has allowed the private sector to fill the gap. Dentistry and housing are now effectively privatised. Hospitals and GP surgeries are increasingly going the same way. Water and sewage are the next major areas for private investment. Thatcher won the war and Thatcherism won the peace.
The reduction of hospital provision in Fermanagh and Newry and the proposed reduction at Coleraine means that, apart from Altnagelvin, emergency surgery in the north will only be available in a hospital within 25 miles of Belfast. Just as the English administration in the 15th century was confined to the Pale around Dublin, Stormont’s health system is now the new NHS Pale around Belfast.
The US, the EU and Britain can sleep easily at night knowing that the north is now becoming increasingly Americanised. The USA’s approach to the peace process was to turn the north into a giant Starbucks. The IRA headed the queue for coffee.
Unionism ruled for 50 years by telling its supporters how lucky they were to be in union with Britain. SF holds power today by telling its voters how lucky they will be in a united Ireland, something they have been promising for 55 years.
With no political philosophy during its long war, the IRA had no social or economic policy objectives for the people here when it declared a ceasefire. So who did they fight the war for? The answer is obvious today. Tiocfaidh ár lá indeed.
