Change is coming to the United States in January 2025. The Biden era will be over in six months.
Greeting us will either be Donald Trump’s second term or Kamala Harris becoming the first woman president in the United States’ history.
Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw has naturally got pundits analysing the horse race of who is up and down in those seven key swing states that will decide this election.
However, on the home front, a stark reality will have to be confronted as we face a post-Biden world: Ireland, north and south, will inevitably receive much less attention.
This is not to say we will fall off the map entirely; it is just that regardless of who wins in November, there will be a significant readjustment of our level of importance to the next administration, posing potential challenges that we must be prepared for.
Joe Biden made no secret of his pride in his Irish roots. Last year’s visit to Ireland was like a homecoming. Engaged and loving being here, it was his presidency’s most personally meaningful foreign trip.
As the dust has settled on Brexit, it is easy to forget that in late 2020, Biden criticised the then-British government’s approach toward resolving the issues around the protocol.
He raised his concerns with the UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. He made a public statement in the middle of that election campaign, saying: “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit. Any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent upon respect for the agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period.”
It is hard to imagine many presidential candidates making any substantive statements on Northern Ireland. The closest we got under Trump was his backing of Brexit in 2016 and his criticism of how Theresa May approached negotiations with the European Union. Harris, during her years as a senator or vice president, has not demonstrated much interest in Ireland.
The post-Biden world will be different regardless of who wins. There is a temptation to believe that our local issues will always receive some attention from those in the corridors of power in the United States. We cannot take that for granted.
Our political leaders in Dublin and Belfast will have a more challenging time getting the attention of the next administration. This is not something new for us. We faced a similar challenge when Bill Clinton left office, and our political leaders did an excellent job of getting some attention from the Bush administration. These skills of raising issues with people who do not have an automatic interest or connection to this place will be critical from January 2025.
All of this is something this island needs to prepare for over the coming months. Both potential replacements pose different degrees of challenge.
I know many here will be fearing a Trump second term as being bad for not just Ireland but Europe. Many of those fears are not without foundation. However, we cannot assume that because Harris is a Democrat, she brings an automatic interest in this place or its issues. The Obama administration perfectly illustrates that a Democratic administration does not always guarantee a strong interest in Ireland.
Ireland will not be as important to the next president as it is to the one currently in office
Even with Stormont back up and Brexit issues largely resolved, this island still has issues that need to be addressed. Economically and politically, we have benefitted from the attention we have received from numerous administrations in Washington, DC, and it is important that we recognise and prepare for the new reality coming our way.
Ireland will not be as important to the next president as it is to the one currently in office. Accepting that first principle will help political and economic leaders work out how to raise our issues with some faces who might not be as receptive.
Ireland will have to shout a little bit louder and lobby smarter to ensure the next administration pays our concerns any attention.
