QUALITY is not something that can be manufactured of a Saturday afternoon in a packed Croke Park, but confidence is, and that should be of concern to Tyrone.
It appears to have been largely forgotten in the last 12 months that Mayo are a team whose confidence has left them, but whose ability to produce a performance has not.
If they do conjure it in Croke Park this afternoon, it will have been from the blindside. It’s undeniable that their form has been well short of their best.
None of their performances so far in this year’s Championship suggest that they can take out the side ranked second favourites for Sam Maguire.
But this is a very dangerous game for Mickey Harte’s side for many reasons.
Mayo’s confidence is fragile but a good opening 20 minutes could go a long way towards rebuilding it. And if the good players that Mayo have get their teeth into Tyrone, they could be very difficult to shake.
They are going to have to target Niall Morgan’s kickouts far more effectively than they did Westmeath’s.
In last year’s All-Ireland semi-final defeat by Kerry, it was a major issue for Tyrone. They visibly did not want to kick to David Moran and Anthony Maher, and ended up conceding a number of scores off wayward restarts.
Tyrone must display the value of that lesson here. They will not want to kick to the O’Shea brothers, or Barry Moran if he starts.
Conditions are expected to be much more favourable to the goalkeepers today, but Mickey Harte must remember the impact that Padraig McNulty had from the bench if they meet a roadblock down that avenue.
Mayo won 8 of their opponents’ 19 restarts in the first half last weekend, it was more down to the poor decision making from Westmeath’s goalkeeper Darren Quinn.
Mayo have to be prepared to take a risk in order to build a platform.
That means pushing their sweeper, Kevin McLoughlin, on to a man and going for the full press. But doing that will leave them susceptible should Tyrone win primary possession.
But better to die hard than lie down. And if Mayo give Tyrone the kickout, they will almost be certainly handing victory over to the Ulster champions.
They have invested serious time and energy into redefining McLoughlin’s role this year, so it’s hard to see Stephen Rochford and John McEntee changing that up without a great deal of thought.
But if they play him as their sweeper this afternoon, Mayo will lose.
He has been criticised of late for not reading the game quickly enough to get across and cut out ball, but he will have very little of that to deal with this weekend.
Tyrone tend not to kick to their full-forward line too often. They run at the middle. They run hard and in big numbers. Tyrone will overwhelm Mayo and score goals if strong tackles are not plentiful in front of goal.
He has been a very useful attacking link from deep, but tackling is not Kevin McLoughlin’s strong point.
The sweeper playing against Tyrone must be someone who is prepared to push out and meet runners with aggression.
Someone like Keith Higgins.
If Mayo put McLoughlin back in his natural number 10 role and Higgins back into a natural defensive position, they can solve two problems at once and give themselves a chance.
Playing Keith Higgins in the attack seems to have had the contrary impact on his game. He has scored just two points in this year’s Championship.
Two years ago, Lee Keegan was arguably the country’s premier attacking half-back.
Last Saturday, he found himself through, inside the Westmeath square, with a free shot at goal. But he hesitated, looked square and played Aidan O’Shea into a hole. The shot was blocked and Westmeath cleared.
Colm Boyle hasn’t carried the same attacking threat either, while Aidan O’Shea’s lack of recent form has been pored over plenty.
Defensively, they have had their misfortune as well. Ger Cafferky’s long-term injury and Tom Cunniffe’s decision to go travelling were sore enough without then losing Cathal Barrett for four months.
That is their entire first-choice full-back line. Barrett made his return as a late sub last Saturday but is unlikely to be ready for 70 minutes just yet.
Brendan Harrison has had an excellent summer, though, and never gave John Connellan a sniff of a ball last weekend. He is likely to pick up Conor McAliskey, with Kevin Keane on Ronan O’Neill.
Mayo have not been quite as poor as perception suggests. In 25 minutes last Saturday, they hit 2-10. Andy Moran is in superb form, the focal point of every attack last weekend.
Diarmuid O’Connor, who is set to return from a dead leg, has arguably been the Championship’s outstanding individual.
Cillian O’Connor and Aidan O’Shea have yet to really click. Imagine they do today, the threat that Tyrone will then have to deal with.
Mayo have had a foot on their throats for a while. They’re still breathing, but only just. Tyrone’s big job is to apply the early pressure that will deny them oxygen that they so badly need.
Against Donegal, Tyrone were exceptionally patient. Too patient, almost. Their gameplan was flawed and it almost allowed the Tír Chonaill men to take back the Anglo Celt.
But Croke Park is an arena that this Red Hand side relishes. They tore Kerry to pieces with their running at times last year. All that stood between them and an All-Ireland final was poor finishing.
Twelve months down the line, they look a more rounded unit still. Colm Cavanagh and Ronan McNamee between them will deny Andy Moran the kind of primary possession he has been afforded thus far.
Justin McMahon is likely to follow Aidan O’Shea wherever he goes. Sean Cavanagh will probably spend most of the day around the middle, knowing Mayo’s strength there.
Despite their lack of belief right now, Mayo have a lot of strengths from 5 to 15.
But unless they change their sweeper, that space in behind their bombing half-back line will lead to their undoing.
Tyrone will have to get it right on the kickouts from both ends. If they can manage that, then there are goals there for them.
They will have to work for it, but Tyrone to get out with three points to spare and secure a date with Tipperary.
