2016 has come and gone, with no Ulster side made it into the last four of the All-Ireland SFC and the Dubs holding onto Sam Maguire.
Without a ball being kicked yet in 2017, I have decided to reflect on last year and, looking at each county’s league standing and Championship draw, I’m gazing into the future to give my verdict on where I feel the balance of power may lie in Ulster by the time the 2017 inter-county season draws to a close.
TYRONE
Gaining promotion back to Division One and winning the Ulster title should be viewed as a decent return for the year. They lost only once in all competitions last year, something that will stand in their favour as they begin 2017, simply because it has given so many of this current squad their first taste of senior success.
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And as we’ve seen in the past, that’s a dangerous ingredient for any Tyrone team to possess. I felt Tyrone were the only team capable of beating Dublin in 2016 and I have no doubt they would have risen to the challenge and Mickey Harte would have formulated a plan to topple the Dubs.
Mayo, however, made sure that contest never materialised. Their one-point loss to Mayo highlighted one key area for improvement they need to target, something I felt needed addressing following their 2015 exit.
Their lack of numbers up front, in particular a target man when it mattered most, cost Tyrone dearly against Kerry and Mayo the past two summers. However, they have the personnel to rectify this, with Sean Cavanagh at full-forward and proven score getters in Mark Bradley, Ronan O’Neill, Connor McAliskey and Darren McCurry feeding off him close to goal.
A return to the league’s top-flight will set them up well for their Ulster defence that begins with a game against Derry. A victory there tees up a likely date with Donegal in the semi-final.
Tyrone look the best bet to emerge from Ulster again and I feel they’re Ulster’s only genuine contenders for Sam Maguire.
Picture by Philip Walsh
DONEGAL
Rory Gallagher’s men pushed Dublin as hard as they could in the All-Ireland quarter-final, but never looked like causing an upset. However, they have drifted back in the pack of genuine All-Ireland contenders since that famous day in 2014 when they silenced the Dubs in emphatic fashion.
With Gallagher being handed a three-year extension, we are sure to see new faces being brought in to complement a squad that is still laced with outstanding talent.
It may take more than this season to blend the old with the new, but I do not see Donegal disappearing from the winner’s arena for too long. Finding a new ball-winning midfielder as a long-term replacement for Neil Gallagher is key, but their investment in youth since their revival in 2011 will pay off in the long-run and new stars such as Letterkenny’s Niall O’Donnell will emerge to complement their established stars like Michael Murphy, Neil McGee and the McHughs.
Donegal remain genuine Ulster contenders but, even if they don’t manage a provincial title, a run through the Qualifiers could see them reaching an All-Ireland semi-final.
MONAGHAN
MID-SUMMER Championship games are often overlooked when we assess the season. Monaghan were involved in two heavyweight tussles with Donegal in the Ulster semi-final.
Defeat was ultimately the Farney men’s lot and, a week later, Longford came to Clones and caused one of the shocks of the summer. I’m not sure if a hangover from the Donegal clashes or complacency was to blame for their flat performance as it was a million miles off the level of performance we’ve come to expect from this Monaghan group.
Malachy O’Rourke is to stay at the helm for another three years, which means, like Rory Gallagher, he feels he can reenergise Monaghan, but he will need to bring through some more new faces from last season’s Ulster U21-winning side to put pressure on the established members of the squad.
They may, again, have to scrap to stay in Division One, but will look at the provincial draw and believe they can make the final.
CAVAN
There was a lot to admire about Cavan as they plotted their way towards Division One for the first time in 15 years. The high point of their Championship season was their draw with Tyrone in the Ulster semi.
However, they were badly beaten in the replay and ill-discipline and Derry’s strong finish led to their Championship exit in the Qualifiers. Terry Hyland stepping down as manager has opened the way for Mattie McGleenan to cut his teeth at inter-county level following a successful stint with Scotstown in Monaghan.
Their return to the league’s top-flight begins with a home tie against the Dubs, but their task of surviving has been made even more difficult by the unavailability of David Givney, Cian Mackey, Fergal Flanagan and Eugene Keating for varying reasons.
To be competitive in Division One, Cavan need all their talent available and the news Gearóid McKiernan will also miss the beginning of the league adds to their woes. A run of defeats will do little for their confidence as they head for a Championship opener against Monaghan or Fermanagh.
Cavan and Roscommon will be under pressure to survive this season and, as Down found out last year, a tough league campaign does not bode well for a prolonged summer.
Picture by Margaret McLaughlin
DERRY
After a heavy Ulster SFC loss to Tyrone, Derry steadied the ship and embarked on a trek through the Qualifiers that saw wins over Louth, Meath and Cavan.
Their subsequent loss to Tipperary will hurt as they failed to tie down a winning position with time almost up. From that day, there has been little positive news emerging from their camp. Up to nine players, including Gareth McKinless, Emmett Bradley, Niall Holly, Ciaran McFaul and Sean Leo McGoldrick, have opted off the squad for 2017.
That said, Damian Barton has faith in those who remain on board for what will be a competitive Division Two campaign. The fact their player of the year in 2016 Danny Heavron and Ballinderry’s defensive rock Connor Nevin have both committed for the season is a huge plus for Barton.
They got the worst possible draw, being pitted against Tyrone again. I’m sure Barton would have liked a change of scenery. A push for promotion and another run through the Qualifiers seems most likely for 2017.
FERMANAGH
Pete McGrath’s side didn’t scale the heights as they did in 2015, but can take the positives from a mid-table finish in Division Two and then running Mayo close in a controversial Qualifier.
A lot was made of the harsh call to award Aidan O’Shea a penalty late on, which changed the contest, but Fermanagh lacked the self-belief to go on and close out the game when they had Mayo on the ropes.
McGrath spoke recently about his belief that, under his watch, Fermanagh can win a first Ulster title. I can’t see this happening in 2017. Survival in an ultra-competitive Division Two is paramount as they lead into a tough opener against Monaghan in the preliminary round of the Ulster Championship.
DOWN
Last year was a nightmare for Down. Seven straight defeats and a few heavy ones along the way saw them fall from Division One. Monaghan’s 19-point winning margin in the Ulster quarter-final was a tough one to take for a county with their tradition.
Not even a home draw against Longford in the Qualifiers could help them generate a win as they lost after extra-time. Sampling that winning feeling again is a must for Down when the league resumes.
For this to happen, Eamonn Burns could be doing with the services of Conor Laverty, Martin Clarke, Caolan Mooney and a few new faces, like Kilcoo’s impressive defender Daryl Brannigan.
Hopes of a more competitive Division Two campaign and the chance to perform in front of a packed Páirc Esler against old rivals Armagh in the first round of the Championship may be enough to tempt some familiar faces back.
ARMAGH
Dropping back down to Division Three was not expected in the spring and their Championship campaign was a write-off, with defeats to Cavan and Laois.
The return of James Morgan, Kevin Dyas and Jamie Clarke to the squad adds a huge amount of quality, but of equal importance is the blooding of impressive new talent like Ben Crealey and Oisín O’Neill.
Armagh will look to gain promotion from Division Three and be full of confidence ahead of their clash with Down. Armagh learned very little progressing from Division Three in 2015 and it showed against Donegal in their first round Championship clash that summer as the game was over inside 10 minutes.
I expect Kieran McGeeney and his players won’t be caught again this year. An unbeaten run through the league with the bedding in of some talented newcomers will be their aim prior to the huge clash against Down in Newry.
Both counties’ league form is hugely important in the lead-up to Championship as they look to build confidence and momentum. Even though we are only a few days into the new year, I expect to see Armagh win in Newry in the Championship for the first time in my lifetime.
ANTRIM
Getting promotion to Division Three was the high point of 2016 for the Saffrons. Unfortunately for them, they did not carry that winning run in the Championship as they lost to Fermanagh and Limerick.
On both occasions, they only managed to register nine points, not nearly good enough in Championship football. The fact they kept both opponents to 12 and 15-points, respectively, shows that, defensively, they are not too far away. Finding the right formula to put enough scores on the board should be the main focus of attention for the management team during their league campaign.
Avoiding an instant return to Division Four is a must if Antrim are to grow as a force as they have been handed an unenviable opener against Donegal in Ballybofey.
As always, they have the potential, with quality from leading clubs like Cargin and St Gall’s, but getting them all to buy into achieving a common goal seems to be their biggest challenge.
