IF recent meetings of Tyrone and Donegal have shown us anything, it’s that appearances can be deceptive.
Tyrone came into the 2016 Ulster final having scored 3-14, 0-16 and 5-18 in their three previous games. They were 67 minutes in against Donegal and had just 0-10 before their late flurry took them over the line in Clones.
There was a hope going into the game that it would be a more open encounter than the one that transpired, albeit that dream was perhaps foolish given Rory Gallagher was the man in the opposite dugout.
Two years down the line, they met in Ballybofey for the first real blockbuster Super 8s tie. It was heralded as the new era once more, with Declan Bonner having released the chains of bondage on the Tír Chonaill men, while Mickey Harte was rediscovering the joy of the boot.
It was unquestionably a different game to the 2016 tie, and yet the notion that either side was playing a man-for-man game holds no water.
Watching the game back now from behind the goal, Donegal set up with three sweepers in the first half. Frank McGlynn sat permanently on the left wing, and Hugh McFadden did the same on the right.
In the hole in front, Leo McLoone had a little bit more licence but his primary role was to make sure he was back as soon as Donegal lost the ball.
For a large percentage of the day, that shape swallowed up Tyrone’s kicking game, which was practically non-existent.
Their defensive positioning was mirrored at the other end. Colm Cavanagh and Mattie Donnelly sat pretty much full-time, with Frank Burns augmenting them in the same way that McLoone did.
And so what transpired was largely a running game, with both sides looking to find gaps in the same way they’d been doing for pretty much the whole decade up until 2018.
Both dropped 15 men back at times and played on the break.
Yet Tyrone, in contrast to two years previous, finished the day with 2-17. That was a bit less down to Donegal’s shape and a bit more to their ineffectiveness as a defensive unit.
Ten months on, they appear no closer to finding the right balance.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
DOES DECLAN BONNER STICK OR TWIST?
SETTING up with three sweepers last year wasn’t enough to curtail Tyrone’s runners once they freshened things up off their bench in the second half.
It was 1-11 to 0-13 in favour of Donegal with 12 minutes to go, but the Tír Chonaill men scored just two points in the remainder of the game, including more than 10 minutes of stoppage time.
Only twice since 2014 has a team scored 1-13 or less in an All-Ireland series game and won.
The game has moved on, and both these sides have shown over the last 18 months that they are moving with it.
This evening will be the ultimate test of their commitment to that, and by that token, it becomes a real test of their contendership for serious silverware in August.
The evidence of last year’s game is that both carried the fear of what the other side might do to them on the counter into it.
If either is to be a serious runner later in summer, they can’t afford to have that same fear again.
All the evidence from 2019 so far suggests that they won’t have. Tyrone have done their level best to have two men on the inside forward line at all times. They will always have at least one.
Donegal have been very similar. Jamie Brennan’s emergence as another leading light this year has given them yet another attacking dimension.
Patrick McBrearty doesn’t stray too far from the opposition square, and with Michael Murphy drifting in and out, Donegal will almost always have two up themselves.
When you look at the teams Declan Bonner has been lining out, he has gone largely with six natural forwards.
If you look from half-back up, 10 of their starting team are all minded to attack. Eoghan Bán Gallagher and Daire Ó Baoill are serious threats from deep, while it seems likely that Ryan McHugh will operate from wing-forward rather than wing-back.
Their primary sweeping options are Leo McLoone, who was hauled off at half-time in the Division Two final after failing to adequately cover the space in front of Mickey Newman, and Daire Ó Baoill, who took over in that role.
Yet it seems very likely that Ó Baoill will be sent to tail Peter Harte, while McLoone seems a natural fit to try and curtail the fine summer that Richie Donnelly’s been enjoying.
The big question for Donegal, then, is whether they trust their own defence and sense enough weakness in Tyrone to retain their attacking philosophy.
Because if there’s one thing that Donegal has that can trouble Tyrone, it’s a wealth of scoring forwards.
That makes a shootout their best bet.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
SUSCEPTABILITY OF BOTH DEFENCES
TRY as they might over the last two seasons, Donegal still look no closer to having a long-term successor to Neil McGee.
The Gaoth Dobhair man has played very little League football over the last two years, and in his stead they’ve tried no fewer than five different players.
Brendan McCole was starting to look like he had it cracked this spring and then came that horrendous 15 minutes against Meath, which saw the veteran McGee quickly called for.
Stephen McMenamin has been tried out and subsequently become a regular in the full-back line, but Caolan Ward, Conor Morrison and Tony McCleneghan didn’t work out.
This becomes a big evening for McGee. He was lauded for his performance in steadying the ship against Meath, but much of it was down to Leo McLoone going and sitting right in front of him as soon as the change was made. That forced the ball into corners, whereas McCole had been exposed in the middle of the goal.
If McGee has no sweeper in front of him, he has to deal with the country’s in-form forward right now.
Last year’s game again shows the difference in McShane then and now. He showed flashes of potential in 2018, but there was a rashness and an uncertainty to his game.
That has disappeared. He’s made a marked improvement on the parts of his game that were holding him back, namely his decision-making and finishing.
The physical attributes he possesses are now coupled with the smarts, and that is why he has flourished since becoming a permanent station at full-forward.
Mattie Donnelly has been a huge foil as well this year since moving into an advanced role. It seems likely that Stephen McMenamin will be detailed to pick him up.
Without a sweeper, can that full-back line curtail that full-forward line? Possibly not. But the positive for Donegal is that if Tyrone attack the game, they’ll be leaving spaces themselves for an attacking division that carries every bit as much threat.
Padraig Hampsey on Michael Murphy has been a given in this fixture, but that doesn’t account for the fact that Patrick McBrearty didn’t play last year.
Ronan McNamee picked him up in 2013, but that was a very constrained affair and the Kilcar man took home just a single point from play off very limited ball.
McNamee comes into the game in good form and looks like a man with his bite back. Mickey Harte will likely entrust him with picking McBrearty up again.
Hugh Pat McGeary has started both previous outings but it would be a surprise if he didn’t make way for Michael McKernan, who was dropped against Antrim with no explanation.
The Coalisland man will know Jamie Brennan well from playing Sigerson together at Jordanstown lately, and seems a natural fit for that job.
But with Colm Cavanagh playing a much more orthodox role so far, Tyrone will be extremely conscious of the threat from deep.
They conceded two goals to Antrim and one to Derry, but a couple of Niall Morgan saves, particularly in the first minute from Jason Rocks during the preliminary round game, have masked their defensive strife.
That is the danger with pushing higher up, and it will be of particular concern ahead of playing a Donegal side that has pace from deep that could cut Tyrone in bits.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
WOULD TYRONE BE BETTER SHUTTING UP SHOP?
THEY'LL win if they do. But in the long run, it doesn't help.
If Donegal play on the front foot and Tyrone decide to close the game down and step away from a more offensive approach, all they’ll be doing is weakening their hand for later in the year.
There may be a potential Ulster title at stake, but the bigger picture is that Tyrone still remain the more likely of the two to be around come an All-Ireland final.
If they’re to win Sam Maguire, they’ll have to beat Dublin or Mayo, if not both, at some stage. Neither of those will take a backward step in terms of their offensive approach, and recent history shows that Tyrone’s more defensive mindset hasn’t worked against either side.
They need experience of standing toe-to-toe with good sides. Donegal are a good side, one whose attack would give any team in the land a real run.
Were Tyrone to accept a man-on-man game and come out the other side, it would be a hugely significant step forward in their attempts to win a fourth All-Ireland title.
If they play that way and lose, they’d still be expected to come through the qualifiers as they did last year, and they’d be able to learn from it.
But if they go on the defensive, then even if they win in Breffni Park, what will they really have gained from it in terms of their longer-term ambitions?
It is a template that won’t bring success in Croke Park, so the idea of returning to it seems counter-productive.
