WHEN the USA destroyed Europe in the 2021 Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits in Wisconsin, the stage seemed set for an era of dominance from the power-packed American outfit.
That 19-9 victory could, in truth, have been even easier and I would have told anyone thinking that Europe could wrestle back the crown in 2023 to think again very quickly.
And yet, here we are on the brink of this year’s renewal at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club in Rome, and I’m now convinced we are set for another home success for Luke Donald’s Europeans.
The visitors are likely to go to post on Friday as favourites, but that gap has been closing all the time, and they can now be backed at evens, with Europe a best-priced 6/5 with Paddy Power.
Donald’s men were 2/1 as recently as the end of June, but the cards have fallen very nicely for the quiet Englishman over the course of the summer and it could be argued they take all the momentum into the three-day contest, with the golfing calendar playing a blinder in that regard.
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Since the PGA Tour largely shut down after the Tour Championship at the end of August, the DP World Tour has played host to a couple of big events in Ireland and at Wentworth, with all 12 of Donald’s team playing and making the cut in the BMW PGA Championship, and seven of them finishing in the top-10.
That number would have been eight but for a late mishap from Shane Lowry, whose selection as a wildcard has been debated widely, but the feeling has to be that Donald got the 12 men he wanted, while that may not be the case for opposite number Zach Johnson.
Seven players from each side at Whistling Straits will be in Rome, with the emergence of LIV Golf seeing a larger turnover than is normal.
The major impact from a European point of view has been on the captaincy, with Donald assuming the reins from original selection Henrik Stenson, while Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter have probably burnt their bridges for the future in that regard.
Garcia is the biggest loss on the course, but he’s past his peak, whereas Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson – who won five points at Whistling Straits – are definitely among the top dozen US players even though Johnson chose to totally ignore them.
Brooks Koepka is the only LIV player in Rome, chosen as a wildcard on the basis of his US PGA win, but Johnson has more or less admitted he let his players sway him in terms of who else to choose, meaning Justin Thomas and particularly Sam Burns are in the team on the back of friendships while the likes of Tony Finau and Keegan Bradley are looking on from home.
Thomas has a fearsome reputation as matchplay expert, while his combination with Jordan Spieth was again brilliant in the Presidents Cup last term, but both have been scratching around for form, while Rickie Fowler has dropped off since winning in Detroit in July, and surprise Major champions Brian Harman and Wyndham Clark may not have been in Johnson’s mind but for one huge week apiece.
Of course, there are plenty in the home line-up with points to prove, and the rookie quartet of Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka, Robert MacIntyre and Nicolai Hojgaard lack experience. That said, the latter pair have won Italian Opens at Marco Simone and all four make loads of birdies and should be saved for fourball action.
Donald can also call on three of the top four players in the world in Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and the red-hot Viktor Hovland, with the Norwegian sure to go better than when winless from five outings at Whistling Straits.
Tommy Fleetwood is also in excellent form and has a runner-up finish to his name at this week’s venue, as does Matt Fitzpatrick, while Tyrrell Hatton could easily have won at Wentworth.
Donald has said he is unsure whether any of his men will play all five sessions, but it would be hard to leave out his ‘big three’ while Fleetwood’s calm demeanour is made for pairs play and he could easily turn it on like he did when undefeated alongside Francesco Molinari in 2018, and a rumoured ‘Fleetwood Mac’ pairing with McIlroy is very intriguing.
The Paris meeting five years ago was very one-sided for the home team, as all of the last four contests have been, and while this course won’t be quite as favourable to the Europeans as Le Golf National, prior knowledge of the layout could well give them the edge and they are the bet at 6/5.
I’m also hoping we get the first close contest since 2012 at Medinah, when Europe stormed back on Singles Sunday to record a second successive 14.5 to 13.5 win, and those who think the 6/5 is too skinny might avail of the 10/3 offered by Sky Bet about Europe winning by 1-3 points as there surely won’t be much between the teams.
As for the individual honours, I’m all over Fleetwood at 16/1 to be the top overall points scorer given his fighting qualities, form and love for a pairs environment, while a good Friday could well see him play all five sessions and his fitness won’t let him down on a hilly course. He is also definitely the pick to be the top wildcard scorer from either side at 6/1 (Bet Victor).
From a US perspective, Scottie Scheffler is priced up to be the main scorer, but I’d make it a toss-up between established partnership Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele here. The Californians have won seven points out of a possible nine in tandem across Ryder and President Cups, while they also claimed the Zurich Classic pairs event on the PGA Tour in 2022.
Cantlay’s fiery nature in singles might just give him the edge and he is a fine bet at 6/1 to be the top earner for his team, while Max Homa is certainly worth a look at 7/2 (888sport) to be the top rookie on show.
Homa won four points at last year’s Presidents Cup and his accuracy and laidback approach make him a perfect partner for foursomes and fourballs.
Donald has opted to break with European tradition by starting with foursomes play on Friday morning, feeling it will give his side the best chance of a lead after the first session.
If all goes to plan they will still be in the lead come Sunday evening and another home Ryder Cup victory will have been secured.
2023 RYDER CUP SELECTIONS
Europe to win, 6/5 (Paddy Power); to win by 1-3 points, 10/3 (Sky Bet);
Tommy Fleetwood, top overall points scorer, e/w, 16/1 (Bet Victor); top wildcard, 6/1 (Ladbrokes);
Patrick Cantlay, top USA points scorer, 6/1 (General);
Max Homa, top rookie, 7/2 (888sport)
