ANYONE with even a passing interest in golf – either through playing or betting – should know you can never get ahead of yourself.
A couple of Saturdays ago, I found myself on the 18th tee of the Old Course in Portstewart, waiting for a playing partner who was scoring very well to hit his tee shot into the closing par-three.
As he stood over the ball, he paused before uttering the foreboding words: “I’ll probably jinx myself but...”
Despite interventions from the rest of the group to halt the sentence, he went on to tell us he was still playing with the same ball that started the round, something the 28-handicap bandit had rarely accomplished before.
One swing later, and the faithful Titleist was in a watery burn no more than a metre wide, leading to a triple-bogey six and a glum face heading in for a pint.
That face became even more glum when it transpired even a bogey on the last would have been enough to win one of the most coveted pieces of silverware known to man.
One pint turned into a fair few more, and as the story got more and more tragic, I tried to lift the mood my pointing out that one of my fancies, Matteo Manassero, was leading the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth by three shots at 35/1.
Another classic case of counting the money too soon came to pass when the Italian faded on the back nine on Sunday, eventually sharing fourth and at least returning place money alongside 20/1 pick Aaron Rai.
The lesson not learned, again I was thinking of the riches when 40/1 selection David Puig moved into a three-shot lead with 10 holes to play at the Open de Espana on Sunday past, only to fall apart and miss the play-off – won by Angel Hidalgo ahead of Jon Rahm – by four shots in a tie for third.
We can be fairly sure Rahm didn’t lose the play-off by virtue of getting ahead of himself, and was generous in his praise of compatriot Hidalgo after missing out on a fourth national title in Madrid.
He did have the consolation of a good few Ryder Cup points, moving into eighth on the early standings for Luke Donald’s team for next year at Bethpage.
It is the quest for more of those points that sees Rahm tee it up this week in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship as part of a line-up that is just about as good as it gets for the DP World Tour at this time of year.
The Spaniard is clearly on the east coast of Scotland out of necessity, having only played in this quirky event once before, missing the cut by five shots in 2019.
And despite being in great form, having won two of his last three LIV outings, I can’t go in at 13/2 given the nature of this pro-am played across three courses – Carnoustie, Kingsbarns and the Old Course at St Andrews – with six-hour rounds the norm as celebrity hackers hold things up.
Rahm is hardly the most patient of players, and while he might just find the right headspace, the price makes little appeal.
By contrast, the relaxed vibe could suit Rory McIlroy, also a 13/2 chance, as he will play alongside his dad Gerry, who may keep him calm if he gets in the hunt, as he has done when second at both the Irish Open and BMW PGA in his last two outings.
McIlroy tends to play this event out of choice in non-Ryder Cup years and has a decent record, so it is hard to overlook him, but there might just be better bets on offer.
Tyrrell Hatton has won this twice and also been second twice so will have fans at 10/1, while Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry are seemingly always on the premises without quite getting the job done.
Getting the job done is a bit of a speciality for five-time Major champion Brooks Koepka, and he is perhaps the most intriguing participant as he tends not to turn up anywhere just for the fun of it.
The American powerhouse had a poor year in the Majors by his standards, but he has been in good nick on the LIV circuit, and I find it impossible to ignore the 20/1 this week, with eight places on offer.
Koepka has won in Singapore and at Greenbrier in the last few months, seeing off Rahm in a play-off in the latter in August, and played very well at the season-ending team event in Dallas 10 days ago.
He also has a host of links form to his name, going back to finishing second in this event in 2015, and he was seventh in 2018 as well, while he has told the LIV website that St Andrews is his favourite course in the world.
If all goes to plan he will get to play it twice his week, with the final round played there after everyone gets a spin at all three courses over the first three days.
Koepka was 10th at St Andrews in the 2015 Open, sixth at Birkdale in 2017, fourth at Royal Portrush in 2019, and sixth again at Royal St George’s in 2021, so he knows all about links golf, and he is crying out to be backed at 20/1.
MacIntyre capable of doing home double
At two points bigger, I can’t get away from Robert MacIntyre as he seeks to back up his win on home soil in the Scottish Open in July.
There has been no homegrown winner of this event since Colin Montgomerie in 2005, but MacIntyre ended a long drought for a Scottish success at the Renaissance Club and he is more than capable of doing the same at St Andrews.
The left-hander has a humdrum record in this event, with three top-30s in four tries, but he is in sparkling form and will be helped by playing alongside his dad, with Dougie having carried his bag when he won the Canadian Open in June.
MacIntyre thrives when he’s relaxed, and comes here in great shape, having finished fifth over links terrain at Royal County Down and then shared 12th at Wentworth.
Refreshed after a week off, he could go close to a third big win of the year.
Another Scot worth considering is Grant Forrest, who shared fifth with his compatriot in the Irish Open, and flew home for a tie for third in Spain on Sunday, signing for a closing seven-under 64.
Forrest has finally caught fire after a sluggish season, and he will relish getting back to this event, where he has finished 10th in each of the last two years to underline his links qualities.
He also has amateur pedigree at two of this week’s venues, winning the St Andrews Links Trophy 10 years ago before finishing second in the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie in 2015, while his only DP World Tour win came at the 2021 Hero Open, played at the Fairmont course in St Andrews.
Forrest really catches the eye at 70/1 with Sky Bet, especially when some other firms are as short as 45s.
Finally, it might be worth a speculative each-way bet on Marcus Armitage at 200/1 with William Hill given that the same names tend to appear on this leaderboard time and again.
The Englishman was second to Matt Fitzpatrick last term, securing his playing rights, and has gone a long way to getting his card for 2025 with a 17th in the Irish Open and a 10th at Wentworth.
Armitage did miss the cut in Spain, but a weekend off after a busy time may do no harm, and this top-class iron player could just go close at a huge price.
That said, it may pay to be patient should any of the selections get in the mix on Sunday, especially with a famous watery burn in play on the 18th at the Old Course.
ALFRED DUNHILL LINKS CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS
Brooks Koepka, e/w, 20/1 (William Hill);
Robert MacIntyre, e/w, 22/1 (Sky Bet);
Grant Forrest, e/w, 70/1 (Sky Bet);
Marcus Armitage, e/w, 200/1 (William Hill); top 20 finish, 6/1 (General)
