AFTER 45 events across 26 countries, the curtain will come down on another rollercoaster of a DP World Tour season in Dubai on Sunday afternoon.
Rory McIlroy is very likely to be crowned the tour’s top dog for the third successive season, and sixth time in all, unless Thriston Lawrence can throw a large spanner in the works.
As the poster boy for the tour, the powers that be would be only too happy for McIlroy’s dominance to continue, although it is a consistent run of results rather than any monopoly on the main titles that leaves the Holywood man on the verge of yet more silverware.
Victory in the Dubai Desert Classic back in January has been followed by four runner-up efforts in big events – most notably the US Open when he should have won – and a couple of other top-fives, once more underlining that it is the quality of results rather than the quantity that counts when it comes to the Race To Dubai rankings.
This week’s DP World Tour Championship will be McIlroy’s 12th outing of the year on the Europe-based circuit, including all four Majors, while Lawrence in second place has played 25 events thus far.
The South African has been second five times, but only a first win of 2024 would be enough to usurp McIlroy, and even then the world number three would have to finish worse than 11th, which is very unlikely in the 50-man field assembled at the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai.
This is the 16th successive renewal around the sprawling, 7,700-yard Earth Course, a venue that always seems to throw up an elite winner, and sees the same names rise to the top of the leaderboard time after time.
That won’t necessarily be the case this year, however, as a strange set of circumstances have ensured that McIlroy is the only past champion teeing it up.
Jon Rahm has won three times since 2017 but gives it a miss for family reasons, while double winner Matt Fitzpatrick inexplicably failed to make the top 50, as did last year’s champion Nicolai Hojgaard.
With 2021 champion Collin Morikawa no longer a DP World Tour member, and Danny Willett off the radar completely, McIlroy has a huge edge when it comes to course form, even if the second of his wins here came as far back as 2015.
That explains why he goes to post at 4/1, a price that has been trimmed after he was tipped as the winner elsewhere.
There is no doubt he is the likeliest champion as he seeks to seal the season-long title in style, so the choice is whether to get involved at that price or not.
He definitely impressed for the most part when third in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, firing 29 birdies across the four days, with five dropped shots in two holes ultimately costing him victory.
Paul Waring was the unlikely winner at 24-under, with McIlroy finishing at 21-under, and if he can keep the lapses in concentration in check he will take some stopping.
In between the victor and a group of three in third was Tyrrell Hatton, who is seen as the biggest danger in Dubai at 6/1 at a venue where he has been second twice.
Tommy Fleetwood was also in the hunt all the way in Abu Dhabi and can be backed at 8/1 here, but with McIlroy hard to oppose those prices are of little interest.
Not that most punters will want to back a 4/1 shot, especially one who has found a way to lose so often in recent times despite looking the best player in the field.
So the alternative is to find each-way runners, and to that end I’ll put up Matt Wallace at 18/1 generally.
The Englishman shared third with McIlroy on Sunday, closing with a 63, and he lapped the field from tee-to-green over the four days but was let down by a cool putter until the closing stages.
That is not usually the case for Wallace, who won in Switzerland in September and is desperate to be on the Ryder Cup team next year.
Sunday’s result garnered a load of points towards that goal, and he can keep the foot to the floor at a venue where he was second last term and also in 2018.
A third round of 60 a year ago shows just how comfortable Wallace is around the Earth Course, a layout that always rewards good drivers of the ball.
He should be on the premises when the silverware is handed out on Sunday, although whether he can get the better of McIlroy is up for debate, so a small interest in the reverse forecast might pay off at 40/1 with Sky Bet.
Big week in store for McKibbin
WHILE McIlroy should stroll to top spot in the rankings, a scramble is likely to ensue for the final couple of PGA Tour cards on offer for 2025.
The top 10 players not already exempt will be handed a chance to tee it up in America next term, with Tom McKibbin currently 11th on that list.
The Holywood youngster should really like the Earth Course on his second visit, having finished 32nd last term, and would be of interest at 40/1 but for the fact he will be keeping an eye on the likes of Jordan Smith and Sebastian Soderberg.
I expect him to be a factor at this venue in years to come, but it might be a bit early, so I’ll keep Rasmus Hojgaard on side at 25/1 (Unibet) instead.
The Dane can have a pressure-free tilt at the title as he’s third in the Race To Dubai so his PGA Tour card is secure, but he can’t catch McIlroy at the top of the tree.
Hojgaard did get the better of Rory at Royal County Down in September, and has been in good form generally in the second half of the season, even if 32nd in Abu Dhabi doesn’t quite reflect that.
He actually played well for the most part but made sloppy errors after a month off, and should be sharper for the outing.
Hojgaard has been seventh and 11th in the last two years at the Earth Course, while he had a fine run of form in the Gulf region earlier this term, finishing in the top-11 five weeks on the bounce, including a runner-up effort in Ras Al-Khaimah.
A powerhouse player who could go very close to the top of the game, he would be in keeping with the calibre of champions here over the years and should be on the shortlist.
Finally, I’ll follow a hunch on Dubai resident Adrian Meronk, who has had a tough time in terms of results since taking the LIV Golf riches in the early part of 2024.
He had finished second to McIlroy in the Dubai Desert Classic and won three times on the DP World Tour in 2023 before jumping ship, largely due to being overlooked for the Ryder Cup last term.
The Pole may regret that move, and certainly looks more at home on the European circuit, while his comfort in Dubai and the surrounding area is there for all to see.
After a slow start in Abu Dhabi he had a good weekend, with a 64 on Saturday very encouraging, while that second in Dubai earlier this year followed a 10th in Abu Dhabi and fourth in Ras Al-Khaimah last term, and fourth in the Dubai Desert Classic and third in Qatar in 2022.
A class act, Meronk is too good to be 55/1 in this 50-man field and he definitely offers each-way value in a week when it could really be all about the favourite.
DP WORLD TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS
Matt Wallace, e/w, 18/1 (General);
Rory McIlroy/Matt Wallace reverse forecast, 40/1 (Sky Bet);
Rasmus Hojgaard, e/w, 25/1 (Unibet);
Adrian Meronk, e/w, 55/1 (Sky Bet)