WHATEVER way the PGA Tour’s executives might want to cut it, their ‘Fall Series’ has been something of a damp squib over the last few weeks.
When the list of winners reads Patton Kizzire, Kevin Yu, Matt McCarty and JT Poston, it’s not hard to see that the big stars have been staying away from smaller events across the USA.
With the Tour Championship ending on the first day of September, and places for the elite in next term’s Signature Events all wrapped up, the incentive for those at the very top of the game to come out and play has to be something out of the ordinary.
Thankfully a run of good tournaments on this side of the Atlantic kept Europe’s leading lights interested, and now a switch to the Far East has brought a few more big guns out of cold storage.
The PGA Tour is in Japan this week for the ZOZO Championship, while South Korea is the destination for the DP World Tour, where the Genesis Championship takes place.
That might not be such good news for viewers on this side of the world, with most of the action taking place in the wee, small hours – starting early tomorrow morning – but the host countries will be delighted with the line-ups.
The ZOZO Championship definitely has the edge in terms of star quality, as it has tended to do since Tiger Woods won the inaugural edition in 2019, claiming his most recent – and very probably his last – PGA Tour title at Narashino Country Club on the outskirts of Toyko.
There can be no bigger winner of an event than Woods, but the list since has been fairly impressive, with home hero Hideki Matsuyama, current US Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley, and double Major champion Collin Morikawa claiming the last three renewals.
Matsuyama and Morikawa are back for more here, but the honour of favouritism goes to world number two Xander Schauffele, who goes to post for this 78-man, no-cut, event at no bigger than 4/1.
While Matsuyama is the best Japanese player ever and has a great record in front of his home fans, Schauffele and Morikawa also have strong family ties to the Land of the Rising Sun, and take any opportunity to play there.
A strong case can be made for any of the trio on a short, tree-lined Narashino lay-out that is all about precision off the tee and stellar iron play, with five par-threes really rewarding those who can hunt down flags.
The big negative against the leading trio is that none of them have been seen in strokeplay action since the Tour Championship almost two months ago, with only Presidents Cup duty hauling them out to play since.
They all had a degree of success in that one-sided contest at Royal Montreal, with Schauffele and Morikawa each winning four points out of five in a facile US victory, while Matsuyama had the consolation of beating world number one Scottie Scheffler in the singles as the Internationals took a hammering.
On the evidence of 2024 as a whole, Schauffele deserves to be favourite, but a best of ninth at Narashino suggests he may not like the quirky course as much as the other two, and given you can never fully trust Matsuyama’s fitness, Morikawa looks to be the stand-out bet at 7/1 (William Hill) to defend his title.
The world number four ended a two-year wait for silverware when destroying the field by six shots 12 months ago, and should be even more confident now, despite the fact he has done everything but win in 2024.
He did, however, top the 72-hole scoring at the Tour Championship, taking out the staggered leaderboard, while he was superb in the Presidents Cup, and given his work ethic he should have everything in full working order despite his long lay-off.
The leading iron player around, outside of Scheffler, Morikawa could easily make it back-to-back ZOZO victories.
Classy Kim can strike if his irons are hot
Of course, there will be more than three men vying for the title, with Sungjae Im, Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas and Max Homa other big names hoping to claim the trophy come Sunday.
Theegala is of strong enough interest at 16s after a fifth here last term, but having put up one of the market leaders, I’ll look down the list for each-way alternatives.
And the first of those is another man who put in a fine Presidents Cup performance, Si-Woo Kim.
The Korean was a stand-out player in an outclassed International outfit in Canada, taking two points from four and pushing Bradley all the way in the singles.
Always a brilliant iron player, his wayward putter behaved brilliantly in Montreal, and if the same thing happens in Japan, Kim could be hard to handle.
He only has a best of 18th at Narashino in 2021, but he has probably not come here in better form, having played well for a top-20 on his Wentworth bow prior to the Presidents Cup and been fifth in his last US outing, the BMW Championship in August.
Kim could certainly be a factor at 33/1, while Beau Hossler is also worth following at the same price.
Runner-up here last term, Hossler isn’t really the type of player Narashino should suit as he is erratic with his irons, but he has performed well here twice now, with a 16th in 2022 as well as that big showing last term.
Hossler is also in fine form, having lost a play-off for the Sanderson Farms Championship before finishing eighth in the Black Desert in Utah, and 23rd in the Shriners in Las Vegas when he was on the wrong side of the draw with high winds around.
Outside of Matsuyama, Japanese players struggled in this event for the first few years, but last year was encouraging with three home hopes in the top-10, while Takumi Kanaya was seventh in 2021.
And Kanaya is worth following again at 66/1 as he comes in with a win, a second and a fourth in his last three Japan Tour events.
He also leads the home circuit for greens in regulation this year, which bodes well for this test, and if an elite player doesn’t emerge victorious, the organisers might well hope a Japanese victor comes through to give the ‘Fall Series’ a bit of a lift.
ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS
Collin Morikawa, 7/1 (William Hill)
Si-Woo Kim, e/w, 33/1 (Paddy Power)
Beau Hossler, e/w, 33/1 (Paddy Power)
Takumi Kanaya, e/w, 66/1 (Ladbrokes); top Japanese player, e/w, 8/1 (William Hill)
