Golf

Michael McWilliams: It could easily be Shane again in the Open wind and rain at Royal Troon

Shane Lowry will become an honorary member of Royal Portrush Golf Club in October and will be granted freedom of Causeway Coast and Glens Borough Council. Picture by David Davies/PA Wire
Shane Lowry brought the house down at wet and windy Royal Portrush in 2019 and he could add a second Open Championship victory in similar conditions at Royal Troon this week

In golfing terms, you could hardly get more different than Augusta and Royal Troon.

And yet, so condensed is the global calendar now that the entire Major season will have been held across just 101 days, from the first Masters tee shot to when the winning putt drops at the 152nd Open Championship on the Ayrshire coast come Sunday evening.

Whoever hoists the Claret Jug will then have an eternity to bask in the glow of being the most recent Major champion before it all starts again in Georgia next April.

It’s a shame that the four biggest weeks of the year come so close together, but in another sense the chance for redemption can come very quickly indeed.

Rory McIlroy will certainly have that on his mind when he tees it up at Royal Troon from Thursday after he let the US Open wriggle away just last month at Pinehurst.

He doesn’t have to look far back at all for inspiration and evidence that good things come to those who wait as the man who pipped him to glory in North Carolina, Bryson DeChambeau, was second just four weeks earlier in the USPGA.

The Holywood man will be hoping history repeats itself in that sense, and he might be more confident of a fifth Major win than anyone would have thought possible in the immediate aftermath of his Pinehurst pain.

McIlroy played well for fourth at the Genesis Scottish Open last week and crucially got that awkward first appearance in front of the cameras out of the way, so will have swapped Scotland’s east coast for west in good heart.

We can also look towards the final Major of the season in good fettle, with Robert MacIntyre coming good on a 33/1 tip in front of his adoring home galleries.

He might even have been on the shortlist again were it not for his public declaration that he would be drinking heavily from his new piece of silverware for a day or two.

That will hardly be ideal preparation for a Troon course hosting the Open for the 10th time and the first since 2016, when Henrik Stenson got the better of Phil Mickelson in a classic duel, the pair finishing light years ahead of the rest.

The Swede’s winning score of 20-under remains hard to believe, and the victor this week is unlikely to be anywhere near that with rain and breezes forecast for all four days.

That weather would appear a slight negative against McIlroy, who was a distant fifth eight years ago and has gone close on a number of occasions since as he seeks to add to his 2014 victory at Hoylake.

He is a 15/2 second-favourite behind world number one Scottie Scheffler, who opted not to play in the Scottish Open and instead did his links preparation along the coast from Troon at Turnberry.

Scheffler can be backed at 5/1 in places as he looks for a seventh victory of a stunning season, but I can oppose him as he might just be undercooked having not played since winning the Travelers Championship a month ago, while I’m not convinced Links golf is his thing, yet at least.

There are also concerns over the likes of Ludvig Aberg and 2021 champion Collin Morikawa, both of whom backtracked again when in the hunt at the Renaissance Club on Sunday, while there is no need to put up USPGA champion Xander Schauffele as we only need him to finish in the top-20 to come good on a 12/1 pre-season tip.

Of those towards the top of the betting, McIlroy is the most appealing, but I’m happy to delve deeper given the weather, and therefore 2019 winner Shane Lowry makes most appeal at 45/1 with Unibet.

It is a bit of cliché to turn to the Offaly man when rain jackets are likely to be required, but the case for doing so is plain to see going right back to his Irish Open win as an amateur in 2009 at County Louth, before he famously followed that up a decade later when he lifted the Claret Jug at a raucous Portrush.

Lowry has been in the hunt for a second Major success on numerous occasions over the last five years, most recently when sixth in the USPGA at Valhalla in May, while he also played well when 19th at the US Open, and was then ninth in top-class company at the Travelers Championship.

Troon is a more testing Open venue than most, with an accurate long game a serious advantage, although scrambling skills will always help on a Links, and there are very few better in either regard.

The 45/1 on offer looks huge to me, particularly when you consider the runner-up at Portrush, Tommy Fleetwood, is no bigger than 25s, as is another Major maiden in Tyrrell Hatton.

Rahm raid not out of the question

Jon Rahm can also be backed at 25/1 (William Hill) and given his CV it would be rude to ignore him at those odds.

The Spaniard has endured a difficult Major season on the back of his switch to LIV, failing to land a blow at Augusta or Valhalla before withdrawing from the US Open with a foot injury.

Indeed, he is without a victory at all since his 2023 Masters win, but Rahm has been the model of consistency on the Saudi series, adding a 10th at Valderrama on Sunday to a third last time out in Nashville.

Those might not be ideal prep runs for a cold Scottish Links, but Rahm’s seaside pedigree is there for all to see and he won’t take much time to adjust, having won windy Irish Opens at Portstewart and Lahinch, as well as finishing third in the 2021 Open at Royal St George’s and joint-second at a wet Hoylake behind Brian Harman last term.

Jon Rahm will miss the third major of the year (Sue Ogrocki/AP)
Jon Rahm could rescue his Major season with a good showing at Royal Troon (Sue Ogrocki/AP)

I can’t really pass him up at 25s, while Tom Kim is also worth another chance at 45s with Paddy Power despite coming up a little short for us when selected in the Scottish Open.

The Korean youngster did finish that event with a flourish, however, a closing 64 giving him 15th and sending him to Troon in bullish mood, while it only underlined the feeling Kim loves Links play.

He was third on his Scottish Open debut in 2022 and sixth last term, a week before sharing second at Hoylake, when he played on a sprained ankle and fought hard the whole way.

The 22-year-old is an accurate player with a sprinkling of stardust around the greens, so he could just defy the odds and become the youngest Major champion since Jordan Spieth at the 2015 US Open.

Big-hitting American Tony Finau offers a fine alternative to the market leaders for The Masters at Augusta this week  Picture by PA
Tony Finau could prove huge Open value at 45/1 with Paddy Power

Going back to the 2019 renewal at Portrush for clues, it might also pay to side with the man who was third, Tony Finau, also at 45/1 with Paddy Power.

Finau actually made his Open debut at Troon eight years ago, posting a very decent 18th, and was ninth at Carnoustie two years later and also 15th in 2021, so he knows how to play Links golf, which probably explains why he opted out of the Scottish Open.

It remains to be seen whether a spin round the Renaissance Club would have helped, but we do know Finau is in great form, having finished eighth in the Memorial, third in the US Open and fifth at the Travelers in his last three events.

Always reliable from tee-to-green, his short game has been much-improved of late, gaining strokes with his putter on each of those three outings, and any continuation of that should see Finau bang there at Troon come Sunday.

Finally, I’ll put up Aaron Rai at 66/1 (Paddy Power) on the back of a stellar run of form that has taken in a runner-up finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, a seventh at the John Deere, and then a fast-finishing fourth in the Scottish Open to secure his place at Royal Troon.

The Englishman is a precise player who makes few mistakes, while he won the 2020 Scottish Open in terrible conditions, seeing off Fleetwood in a play-off.

This is his third Open outing, with a 19th in 2021 very encouraging, as was the same result at Pinehurst last month, so Rai could go far better than the odds suggest as the curtain comes down on a Major season that seems all too short.

OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS

Shane Lowry, e/w, 45/1 (Unibet, seven places); top GB&I, e/w, 9/1 (Betway);

Jon Rahm, e/w, 25/1 (William Hill, eight places); top continental European, 9/2 (Betway);

Tom Kim, e/w, 45/1 (Paddy Power, 10 places); top Asian, 4/1 (Paddy Power);

Tony Finau, e/w, 45/1 (Paddy Power);

Aaron Rai, e/w, 66/1 (Paddy Power); top Englishman, 13/2 (Sky Bet)