IT is very fair to say the system for deciding the FedEx Cup winner is not to everyone’s liking, with one of my friends calling it ‘ridiculous’ earlier this week.
His main bone of contention – and justifiably so – was Keegan Bradley vaulting to fourth on the ‘season-long’ standings after winning the BMW Championship on Sunday night, having only scraped into the 50-man field in Colorado by the skin of his teeth.
The US Ryder Cup captain made the absolute most of his chance to tee it up at Castle Pines, and nobody is denying the quality of his victory there, but four good days shouldn’t really add up to an elevated starting position on the staggered leaderboard for this week’s Tour Championship.
The curtain will fall on the FedEx race at East Lake in Atlanta this Sunday night, although we only then have a two-week hiatus before the PGA Tour’s ‘Fall Series’ kicks in.
Scottie Scheffler will go to post from Thursday evening as leader in the FedEx race, but his six wins on the tour – plus on Olympic gold medal – only equate to a two-shot head-start in the current system, which has been in place since 2019 to take away the chances of different players winning the Tour Championship and FedEx Cup.
If my mate finds the finale to the race ridiculous, we can safely say Scheffler feels something similar, and there is a bit of scar tissue building up when it comes to this time of year.
The world number one has come to East Lake in pole position in each of the last two seasons, starting at 10-under both times, but has failed to get the job done on both occasions and watched on as someone less deserving has made off with the silverware and the massive winner’s prize that should rightfully have been his.
Viktor Hovland timed his run perfectly 12 months ago, winning both the BMW and Tour Championships, while Rory McIlroy overturned a six-shot deficit to Scheffler to claim his third FedEx Cup in 2022.
Therefore, the current leader looks a very uneasy favourite at no bigger than 5/4 this time around, and he has cut a frustrated figure in each of the two play-off events thus far, with a fourth at the St Jude Championship followed by 33rd in the mountains of Colorado on Sunday, when both his putter and famed iron play misfired.
I might be wrong, but Scheffler already looks a little resigned to missing out on the riches again – with $25 million going to the champion – and the evidence of the last two years suggest he dislikes East Lake as much as the system.
After throwing away his lead in 2022, the Texan only managed to shoot one-under for the 72 holes last term, 18 shots worse than Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who ripped up the record books with stunning displays.
Schauffele goes to post now as second seed, starting two shots adrift at eight-under, with Hideki Matsuyama at seven-under and Bradley a further shot back, going down to the players ranked 26th to 30th, all of whom start on even-par.
It’s far from ideal, but the US PGA and Open champion must surely be licking his lips at the thought of overthrowing Scheffler, and his record at East Lake is nothing short of stellar.
He and Hovland were seven shots better than anyone else over the four rounds last term, while Schauffele also topped the 72-hole scoring in 2020, was second to McIlroy in 2019, and made off with the Tour Championship on his debut in 2017.
While the course has had a number of changes for this year’s event, there is no getting away from the fact the world number two totally laps it up, so the dilemma is the best way to back him.
As always since the new format was introduced in 2019, there are two distinct markets, one for the Tour Championship winner, and the other for the best score over 72 holes.
My focus has always been on the latter, although it is hard to keep a track on given that broadcasters only care for the main leaderboard.
I’ll have my notebook and pen out to keep abreast of it all, and while Schauffele is a 5/1 chance to have the lowest score for the four days, on this occasion I think it is a better idea to back him as the outright winner at 12/5 with Sky Bet.
Clearly, that price won’t be to everyone’s liking, but I’m convinced he will get the better of the only man above him, while his form is superior to almost everyone behind him.
Matsuyama could argue against that, but he withdrew with a back issue in Colorado and is always a fitness concern, Bradley has only had one great week three months, and Ludvig Aberg (five-under) is seeing East Lake for the first time.
With four shots to spare on everyone else, Schauffele would surely back himself, and the fact he has been second and fifth in the two play-off events thus far will only boost his confidence even further.
Rory could shine again at East Lake
One man he might just be wary of given recent history is McIlroy (four-under), whose record at East Lake is arguably even better than Schauffele’s, and could be dangerous coming from off the pace with little or no pressure.
The scenario facing him is very similar to 2022, when the Holywood man started six back, triple-bogeyed his first hole, and still made off with the FedEx Cup for the third time, posting the best 72-hole score of 17-under in the process.
He also had the best score in 2019, and won the Tour Championship in 2016, so even though McIlroy is not at his blistering best, he might just be worth looking at, with Sky Bet offering 14/1 about him having the best total over four days.
He was very poor at the St Jude Championship in Memphis, but a solid 11th in Colorado was much-improved despite some silly mistakes, and we know how quick he can turn it on, especially on a course he likes, so the 14/1 is very tempting.
Elsewhere, Sam Burns is coming into form very nicely with the big money and a Presidents Cup place to play for, and he is definitely of each-way interest in the 72-hole betting at 25/1 with Unibet.
Scheffler’s best mate flew through the field for second in Colorado on Sunday, signing for a closing 65 that was two shots better than anyone else, to add to a fine fifth in Memphis the previous week.
He starts six back here and with the pressure off and his putter hotter than everyone else’s at present, he could well go at least as well as last term when his 10-under total was the fourth-best of the week.
Finally, course pedigree makes Justin Thomas a decent shout at 33/1 in the 72-hole market as he seeks to make the most of an unexpected reprieve as 30th seed here.
‘JT’ was outside the bubble when he left Colorado on Sunday night, but late mistakes from Brian Harman and Alex Noren let him back in, and Bradley’s victory should act as inspiration.
It will need a turnaround in form for the two-time Major champion, but he has never been worse than seventh over 72 holes in eight visits to East Lake, and was second in 2017, third in 2020 and fourth in both 2021 and ‘22.
Having missed out on the play-offs completely last year, the shackles are off now and Thomas has each-way claims, starting 10 off the pace and seemingly with no hope of winning the FedEx Cup itself.
Then again, so ‘ridiculous’ is the system that anything could happen.
TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS
Xander Schauffele, 12/5 (Sky Bet);
Rory McIlroy, lowest 72-hole score, e/w, 14/1 (Sky Bet);
Sam Burns, lowest 72-hole score, e/w, 25/1 (Unibet);
Justin Thomas, lowest 72-hole score, e/w, 33/1 (Unibet)
