AFTER a rare week off for the main tours on either side of the Atlantic, there is action in both Mexico and Abu Dhabi for punters to get their teeth into from tomorrow.
Once more, the PGA Tour’s Fall Series ‘Falls’ a bit flat in terms of the line-up for the World Wide Technology Championship, but the same can hardly be said for the HSBC Abu Dhabi Championship.
This had traditionally been held in January, but a restructuring has seen a move to November to give the DP World Tour a two-week finale in the United Arab Emirates.
The move has worked wonders in terms of field quality, with almost all of European golf’s leading lights in attendance, led naturally by Rory McIlroy.
The top 70 available players on the Race To Dubai standings are teeing it up in Abu Dhabi, before the top 50 come Sunday night make the 90-minute road-trip to Dubai for the season-ending DP World Tour Championship.
McIlroy has been crowned the Order of Merit winner at the end of the Dubai event in each of the last two seasons, as well as five times in all, and he looks very likely to match Seve Ballesteros’ tally of six as he holds a huge lead over second-placed Thriston Lawrence at the top of the standings with two events to play.
The fact there are massive points and pounds on offer this week and next means things can change, but the Holywood man should really be just one behind Colin Montgomerie’s record tally of seven Harry Vardon trophies when the curtain comes down on the 2024 campaign.
Indeed, the world number three’s focus will be on winning in Abu Dhabi and putting the whole thing to bed, and it is remarkable he has never taken this title before, so often has he gone close.
That said, his best efforts came at Abu Dhabi Golf Club, but we are now at the Yas Links for the third successive season which does open things up for the rest of the field.
As the name suggests, the course is a man-made links-style venue on Yas Island, designed by Kyle Phillips, who also came up with Kingsbarns, amongst others.
These attempts to emulate natural Irish and Scottish courses elsewhere in the world don’t always work, but Yas Links has garnered glowing praise from the players who have taken part in this event for the last couple of years.
Thomas Pieters won at 10-under here in January 2022, before Victor Perez got it to 18-under in calmer conditions last term to take the title by a shot from Min Woo Lee.
Perez is also a former Alfred Dunhill Links winner, and a number in the chasing pack also had genuine links form to their name, so seaside pedigree is worth looking for, as well as proven form in the Gulf region.
McIlroy goes to post a 9/2 shot, ahead of Tyrrell Hatton (13/2) and Tommy Fleetwood (8/1).
All three tick the boxes of links and Gulf form, with Hatton of real interest having claimed the Alfred Dunhill title last month for the third time, while he won this event at the previous venue in 2021.
One issue is that most of the leading lights haven’t played since the Dunhill ended on October 6, and while class is likely to shine through at some stage, rust is perhaps a factor.
Therefore, Hatton is just a bit on the short side, and I’ll side with Shane Lowry at more than double the price at 14/1 generally.
The Offaly man has the perfect blend of links and Gulf form, having won this and the Open at Portrush in 2019, and he could easily have added to his tally in both events in the last couple of years.
In truth, Lowry doesn’t win as often as he should given his talent, but he’s gone on record saying how much he likes the Yas Links course, which can be forgiving off the tee but puts an emphasis on hitting the right sections of huge, undulating greens.
The world number 28 led here after three rounds last year and was second at the same stage in 2022, before final round collapses cost him on both occasions.
Keeping it going for 72 holes is sometimes an issue, and blistering temperatures this week have to be overcome, but Lowry has been playing very well since switching his attentions back to the DP World Tour for the autumn and will be fresh after a few weeks off.
He has been 12th in the Irish Open, BMW Championship and Dunhill, as well as 13th in the Spanish Open, and it won’t take much more to get right in the hunt here.
Of the leading lights, Lowry ranks as the best bet and is an each-way play at least at 14s.
Olesen could maintain hot form close to adopted home
Below the top tier of players, there are battles going on for the 10 PGA Tour cards on offer for 2025, as well as those trying to get into the 50 for next week, so motivation is high across the 70-runner field.
Thorbjorn Olesen is just outside the cut-off mark for a PGA Tour card at this stage, but he has been playing very well recently and is well worth keeping on-side.
The Dubai resident contends regularly in the Gulf events and won in Ras Al-Khaimah earlier in the season, seeing off fellow Dane Rasmus Hojgaard by six shots.
He is also a former Alfred Dunhill Links winner, and like Lowry he was in the hunt here 12 months ago before a poor final round.
Olesen is in far better nick now, having finished 12th at the Dunhill, joint-second in the French Open and seventh in the Andalucia Masters in his last three starts.
A fine links player, he has been putting well, while his irons have been in-and-out, and if he can marry both elements here he should be a big factor at 25/1 generally.
Danish golf has been flying of late, and I’m also expecting a big week from Nicolai Hojgaard, who has had a tough enough season since going close to a first PGA Tour win at Torrey Pines in January.
There have been signs of life of late from the Ryder Cup star, however, no doubt motivated by his brother’s win at Royal County Down in September.
Nicolai had to finish in the top-10 last time out in Korea to make it into the 70 for this week, and that was his third successive top-20 finish.
He needs another big performance to go forward to Dubai, where he would be the defending champion, which is bound to be a huge incentive.
His victory at the Earth Course last term followed a success in Ras Al-Khaimah in 2022, so there is no doubting he likes this region, while he was 10th on his Yas Links debut in 2023.
I like his chances at 33/1 with William Hill, while finally I’ll put up Antoine Rozner at 90/1 with the same firm as a lively outsider.
There have been a flurry of French winners recently, with David Ravetto, Frederic Lacroix and Julien Guerrier all hoisting DP World Tour silverware, and so often that inspires countrymen to do likewise.
Rozner has already won three times on tour, notably in the 2020 Dubai Golf Championship and the 2021 Qatar Masters, the latter played by the sea, so he should be right at home here and comes in after a fourth in Korea 10 days ago.
Rozner is second for approach play on tour this year and went well for three days at Yas Links last term before closing with a 78.
I’ve definitely seen worse 90/1 shots as we seek to build towards the end of the golfing season with a winner or two.
HSBC ABU DHABI CHAMPIONSHIP
Shane Lowry, e/w, 14/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill);
Thorbjorn Olesen, e/w, 25/1 (General);
Nicolai Hojgaard, e/w, 33/1 (William Hill);
Antoine Rozner, e/w, 90/1 (William Hill)
