I WOULD not have chosen to be 250 miles away from Cheltenham on the first day of this year’s Festival, but I will be keeping a very close eye on the action there in between my four rides at Sedgefield.
I hope I can ride a few winners to keep my lead at the top of the jockeys’ championship standings – and hopefully my main rival Richard Johnson doesn’t ride too many on the Cheltenham cards this week.
Leading the title race is a very exciting position to be in. It’s one I’ve never been in before, but I know a lot can still happen between now and April 25, the last day of the season.
Thankfully, I will get to experience the Cheltenham buzz tomorrow and on Friday.
I’ve picked up a nice ride for David Pipe in the Bumper tomorrow, Panic Attack, while Navajo Pass is a lively outsider in the Triumph Hurdle on Friday.
More of them later in the week. I’m really looking forward to seeing how the Champion Hurdle unfolds on day one. People might knock the quality, but while there may not be a horse of the class of Hurricane Fly in there, with 17 runners and a guaranteed true-run race, the best horse should win on the day. You can make a case for quite a few.
Obviously, Epatante is eye-catching and a worthy favourite.
Her sex allowance puts her on very favourable terms here.
My reservations would be that both of her wins this season have been on flatter tracks – Newbury and Kempton – and that Cheltenham is a completely different challenge for her.
She was a beaten favourite at the Festival last year – in the mares’ novices’ hurdle – and she didn’t handle the occasion very well.
Maybe being a year older will make a difference but I’d be wanting to see how she handles the prelims first.
If she copes well and settles early in the race then obviously she has a huge chance, but I’d see more value in siding with her stablemate Call Me Lord at around 20/1.
He won on the only occasion that he was run at the track two runs ago, when he beat Ballyandy in the International Hurdle.
He stays well and will love the soft ground so I could definitely see him in the mix.
Epatante’s other stablemate, Pentland Hills, won the Triumph last year and that’s a plus, but he hasn’t won since and I feel that his recent wind op will have to have improved him immensely for him to win this.
In my mind it’s very significant that Willie Mullins has decided to supplement Cilaos Emery for this race.
Any time a big stable like that commits to such a decision you sit up and take notice and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was good enough today. Coming back to hurdles after four runs over fences is another big pointer to his chances.
He won the Red Mills Hurdle very impressively at Gowran last time and that will have set him up nicely for this.
He obviously has the full confidence of his connections and that is a tip in itself.
THE opening race on the card, has the look of the best renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle for some years.
The horses at the top end of the market are all very exciting and unexposed and it’s difficult to see anything winning this race at a double-figure price.
Willie Mullins has a terrific history in this race and Asterion Forlonge obviously has a big chance, having won the same Leopardstown race which Klassical Dream won before going on to win the Supreme last year.
Mullins’ other two are big outsiders but Nicky Henderson’s trio look a bit harder to split. Shishkin has been very impressive in winning at Newbury and Huntingdon, though he will have to step up on those runs.
The trainer has even been making good noises about the outsider of his three, Allart, but the one I like is Chantry House.
I saw at first hand how good he is when I rode behind him in the race he won at Newbury last month and he was very professional. It was and ordinary race that day but he won as he liked and there’s stacks of improvement in him.
Fiddlerontheroof for Colin Tizzard and Gordon Elliott’s Abacadabras also come into the equation.
The former has already come up a hill on soft ground to win the Tolworth, so that experience will stand to him, while the latter is a Grade One winner who has been kept fresh for this race.
I will just side with Chantry House to give JP McManus his first Supreme winner since Captain Cee Bee in 2008.
NOTEBOOK has been transformed from a mid-130s hurdler to a Grade Onewinning chaser this season and he goes off as favourite for today’s Arkle. You’d have to like his chances given his progression and the fact that he beat his main market rival, Fakir D’oudaires, giving him 7lb at Leopardstown in December. He has also beaten another of today’s close rivals, Cash Back, fair and square, so his form is in the book.
However, my concern about him would centre around how he was a bit free going to post the last day out in the Irish equivalent of this race.
He also overshot the start that day and those are things that he might not get away with today, unless his connections can keep a lid on him pre-race. Although, Fakir D’Oudaires has a bit to find on form, he might just represent a bit better value for his powerful connections.
They wouldn’t have taken lightly the decision to go for this race instead of the two-mile-four race later in the week, while his run to be fourth in last year’s Supreme will also stand to him.
Brewinupastorm matched Fakir D’oudaires’s Supreme run in finishing fourth in last year’s Ballymore Novices and although he hasn’t beaten much on his two starts over fences, it’s interesting that he comes here off a 117-day lay-off for a very talented young trainer in Olly Murphy. He’s not out of it.
However, for a value bet I will go for a horse who might just have come in under the radar – Esprit Du Large. He’s another who hasn’t run since before Christmas but he will love the ground and is guaranteed to stay – an attribute which is a must to win an Arkle.
WHILE the first few races today are extremely competitive, all eyes will be on the first hotpot of the day at 4.10 – Benie Des Dieux in the mares’ hurdle
This will be very exciting and has been billed as a showdown between Willie Mullins’ mare and the exciting pretender Honeysuckle.
Both are very good horses but I think Benie Des Dieux will be a bit too streetwise and take her to make amends for her fall last year, when she had this race at her mercy.
There isn’t a big representation from the north on today’s card as the big battalions of Elliott, Mullins and Henderson have pretty much taken over, but Lady Buttons might be good enough to sneak into the four in this race. From a win perspective she’s likely to come up short but her last two performances have been very impressive and she’s so genuine, which gives her a chance of nicking some good prize money behind Benie Des Dieux and Honeysuckle The handicaps are as competitive as ever, but there are two horses that catch my eye.
The Conditional could go well in the Ultima Handicap Chase. He jumps and stays well and has good handicap chase form.
Also, in the novices’ handicap chase later on the card, Imperial Aura looks to have a big chance for Kim Bailey.
