Sport

Armagh will be fine, Donegal probably too - and Harte is lifting Louth towards top table

Kenny Archer

Kenny Archer

Kenny is the deputy sports editor and a Liverpool FC fan.

Armagh and Donegal both went down from Division One but should still make it into the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship.
Armagh and Donegal both went down from Division One but should still make it into the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship.

Fantasy Football has long been a thing in various codes, including Association and Gaelic, but 'Nightmare GAA' is a new game some unfortunates may have to play this year.

With the new structure for the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship, for which 16 teams will qualify, supporters may find themselves cheering on counties they dislike in order to secure a place in the Sam Maguire Cup.

Mickey Harte's longstanding rivalry with Donegal may have to be put aside. The former Tyrone boss fought many battles against the Tir Choniall men but his new charges Louth might have to wish them well.

If Louth are to be in this year's All-Ireland SFC, rather than the second tier Tailteann Cup, then Donegal will also have to get in there ahead of them, through their league position – or else Louth will have to reach the Leinster Final, for the first time since 2010.

Don't mention 2010.

Only the top seven teams in the Allianz Football League are guaranteed a place in the All-Ireland SFC group stages, along with inaugural Tailteann Cup-holders Westmeath.

Eight places will be filled by the counties which reach the four provincial finals.

In practice, as there will be some overlap between the top seven and some of these finalists, the top 10 finishers over the League will almost certainly be involved in the race for 'Sam' – which is good news for Armagh and especially Donegal.

Both are likely to be challenged in the Ulster championship – Armagh should get past Antrim, but Cavan, promoted from Division Three, are a quality team, while troubled Donegal will find it tricky away to resurgent Down.

In truth, even the troubled Tir Chonaill are in little danger of missing out, though, despite being ranked number 10 on the league list after being relegated as the bottom team in Division One (Derry and Dublin are rated above them after their promotions from Division Two).

The rule of thumb is this: you don't want a team above you on the league list to miss out on their provincial decider.

You definitely don't want a team that finished close behind you in the league to get into their provincial final.

So Donegal will be rooting for Derry to see off Fermanagh.

They'll also want Dublin to reach the Leinster Final, so that another League spot is freed up.

That desire for Derry and Dubs' progress also applies to Louth, who won't want Fermanagh or Kildare (or, for the sake of argument, Carlow, Wicklow, Laois, or Wexford) to push them down the pecking order by getting to their respective provincial decider.

One half of the Connacht draw (London/Sligo and New York/Leitrim) doesn't matter, as all four of those ended up below Donegal and Louth in the League.

Nor does the Munster side of the draw which comprises Cork, Clare, and Limerick, because all those counties also finished below Donegal and Louth in the League, so whichever one comes through will leapfrog them into the top 16 anyway.

Despite the disappointment of their demotion, especially at the Red Hands of arch-rivals Tyrone, it would take an extraordinary combination of outcomes for Armagh to miss out.

Even if the Orchard County don't get to the Ulster Final through the much easier side of the draw, they would only fail to be in the mix for 'Sam' if three of last year's provincial winners failed to reach this year's finals: Derry, Dublin, and Kerry.

More than that, Fermanagh would not only need to defeat Derry, they'd also have to see off Tyrone or Monaghan to take one of the Ulster Final spots.

Not impossible, but not very likely either.

Even less likely? The last time both Dublin and Kerry failed to reach provincial finals in the same season was 64 years ago, in 1949 – Meath-Westmeath and Cork-Clare, fact fans.

So Armagh can relax.

Louth, continuing to make remarkable progress under Mickey Harte, are also likely to be above the imaginary red line, as number 11 on the League list.

The 'wee county' are certainly capable of reaching the Leinster decider, despite a tricky path that takes in Westmeath and then Meath or Longford or Offaly.

However, unless there's a massive shock, involving Kerry not making the Munster Final AND Fermanagh getting to the Ulster decider, then Louth should be in the top 16 mix.

Given that the Kingdom will only have to beat Tipperary or Waterford, Harte and 'Horse' Devlin can think about training for a group stage schedule.

Cork are the first county that will really have to sweat. The Rebels will be fancied to secure a 'Sam' spot by reaching their provincial decider, but it's far from certain that they'll see off Clare and then Limerick.

If they don't, they'll be praying that either Armagh or Donegal make it through to the Ulster decider (and definitely not Fermanagh on the other side of the draw) and/ or that Louth reach the Leinster Final.

The Westmeath factor?

If Westmeath reached the Leinster Final that would free up another slot.

That means even if Westmeath defeat Louth in their Leinster quarter-final then Mickey Harte's men (and Donegal) would have hope remaining that the midlanders make it to their provincial decider, by beating Meath, Longford, or Offaly.

Leinster biggish guns Kildare and Meath will both have to pin their hopes on Championship progress, although the Lilywhites are likely to have to see off the Dubs in the semi-final.

The importance of the League is obvious, but the Championship still holds out opportunities for a few counties.

The likeliest top 16?:

Westmeath

Galway

Mayo

Roscommon

Tyrone

Kerry

Monaghan

Derry

Dublin

London/ Sligo/ New York/ Leitrim

Cork/ Clare/ Limerick

Leinster Finalist (too many contenders to list here)

Ulster Finalist (Armagh/ Antrim/ Cavan/ Down/ Donegal)

Armagh

Donegal

Louth

Next up?:

Cork

Kildare

Meath

Clare

Limerick