HAPPY Saint Patrick’s Day. I hope the weather has improved, it has been cold and wet here all week too. Yesterday was tough,really tough.
Stumptown’s last gasp defeat summed the day up! A friend of mine who likes a football bet or two on a Saturday has a saying when one of his picks go a goal down in the first half: “A good second half team” is his standard reply.
The bookies, one nil down after the first two days, came back strongly yesterday and are now 2-1 in front.
We punters need a few VAR decisions to go our way today.
If you are going out today to enjoy a drink spare a thought for us poor punters at Cheltenham - the latest money-making wheeze here is self service pints. You pre-pay, only cards accepted, collect your plastic tumbler and go to a machine dispensing pints.
All fine in theory, but what emerges is largely on the ground or undrinkable, particularly the Guinness.
Like all talk of a fifth day here, this idea also needs to be binned.
The Gold Cup takes centre stage today and it looks to be a great race.
The way A Plus Tard stormed up the hill to win last year makes it hard to believe it is a 7/1 shot for a repeat.
An awful run at Haydock in December is the only sighting of him since last year and if you can forget that run, his record here - two wins, a second and a third in four runs - gives him a massive chance. However the ground may be too soft after all the rain which has fallen this week.
Favourite Galopin Des Champs, who fell at the last fence in the Turners last year when he was hacking up, is too short at 6/4 for a race as difficult as this.
He clouted a fence at Leopardstown last time, so there is obviously a flaw there. This race exposes all flaws.
Having said that the horse I fancy, Conflated, also fell here last year when running on against Allaho in the Ryanair.
That race looked the obvious one this year but trainer Gordon Elliott has been adamant he is a Gold Cup horse. He easily won the Lexus over three miles at Leopardstown at Christmas and while his ability to stay the longer trip today has to be taken on trust, I think he is a serious player at odds of 10/1 or so as the ground will not bother him.
The Triumph Hurdle, the traditional opener on Gold Cup day, will be won by Willie Mullins who has dominated this division all season. At one stage he trained the first seven horses in the betting. Lossiemouth looked the most likely winner before blotting his copybook under a ride at Leopardstown last month which will not feature in Paul Townend’s greatest moments. He ran into a retreating stable mate, lost his place and was hard ridden to try and make up the ground. He couldn’t but had a really tough race. Punters think that will cost him and Blood Destiny is now favourite and should win.
The County Hurdle is also another winner for clan Mullins.
Emmet’s Filey Bay has been seriously punted all week (owned by JP) as he likes soft ground. His three runs this season have all been in England and he only narrowly failed to land the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February following wins at Doncaster and Wincanton.
The fancy prices disappeared weeks ago but he still looks the most likely winner.
The next race, the Albert Bartlett, also has an Emmet/JP contender in the recently purchased Corbetts Cross but I think he will have to play second fiddle to Three Card Brag who looks to have all the cards stacked in his favour here.
Three miles on soft will be the making of this horse and he is nap material.
There are some really slow horses in this so don’t be surprised if the start of the Gold Cup is delayed - it will allow plenty of time to get the drinks in.
Enjoy your sport and whatever else you are doing today and let others do the same and cheer on Ireland tomorrow against England, Napoli in the Champions League, Rory in the Masters and Vanillier in the Grand National.
I have no view on the Eurovision at this stage so you will have to make your own minds up on that one!
Happy punting and thanks, it has been fun as always.
Archie
