THERE is always the feeling that spring is just around the corner when the Six Nations gets going, and while this year’s renewal starts in January when Wales host France on Friday night, brighter evenings will be in store by the time the winners are declared on March 15.
Irish fans will hope Caelan Doris’s hands will be on the silverware come St Patrick’s weekend, although history will have to be rewritten if that is to be the case with Ireland going for a three in-a-row that is unprecedented in the Six Nations era.
After a Grand Slam in 2023, only a last-gasp drop goal from England’s Marcus Smith prevented the same outcome last term, and with the apparent chief dangers France and England travelling to Dublin this time round, it is no real surprise to see Ireland installed as 15/8 favourites to complete that hat-trick.
They will have to do so without Andy Farrell, who has stepped away from his head coach role to take charge of the Lions tour to Australia this summer. Simon Easterby moves up from defence coach to fill the void and disruption should be minimal.
Of more concern is the faltering nature of the November internationals when New Zealand won handily enough in Dublin, before Argentina and Australia were narrowly defeated, both by 22-19 scorelines.
Ireland were without two-thirds of their front row, and with Dan Sheehan back in the fold and Tadhg Furlong hopefully returning soon, better can be expected up front, while Sam Prendergast has a bit of experience under his belt at out-half now and has a serious amount of know-how on all sides to back him up.
As the odds would suggest, France (2/1) are the big dangers and Fabien Galthie’s star-studded panel enjoyed a fine November, beating the All Blacks and Argentina, and with Antoine Dupont making his Six Nations comeback after his Olympics adventure, they will take some stopping.
England (9/2) have lost seven of their last 10 Tests and under-fire coach Steve Borthwick been rocked with injuries to big men, while the fact they open in Dublin before hosting France would suggest their hopes could be finished after two games.
Scotland (7/1), meanwhile, have huge amounts of talent behind the scrum but continue to flatter to deceive when the heat is on, while the absence of inspirational skipper Sione Tuipulotu is a massive blow which they may not be able to overcome when Ireland visit in the second round of games, or when they finish up in Paris.
Ireland have won the last two, with France runners-up on both occasions, while in 2022 they were the top two in the other order. And it is almost impossible to see anything other than Europe’s two powerhouses dominating once more, so the smartest bet of all ahead of this Six Nations fight is to back the dual forecast at 13/8 with Boylesports.
In terms of an outright bet, the home fixtures tilt things in Ireland’s favour, and it really all should come down to the visit of France on March 8, with Easterby’s men strongly fancied to win all their other games.
And France have a poor recent record in Dublin, winning once since 2011, so the 7/2 about Ireland winning the Grand Slam must be of real interest.
Scottish star Van der Merwe the pick of the tryscorer bets
French wingers Louis Bielle-Biarrey (9/2) and Damian Penaud (6/1) dominate the top tryscorer betting, even though the latter has a toe injury that is likely to rule him out of the chance to fill his boots against hapless Wales in the opener on Friday night.
Penaud scored six tries in his last European outing for Bordeaux, while Bielle-Biarrey is razor-sharp and could rip the Dragons to shreds.
That said the prices hardly appeal, and I’d suggest an each-way flutter on Scotland’s giant winger Duhan van der Merwe at 12s.
The South Africa-born flyer shared top spot with Dan Sheehan on five tries last term and also topped the charts with five in 2021. A proven threat with 30 tries in 44 games overall, Van der Merwe will be licking his lips about the visits of whipping boys Wales and Italy to Edinburgh.
He looks slightly overpriced at 12/1 in a free-scoring team, while Ireland’s Mack Hansen may just have a point to prove after his recent ban for blasting referees, and he is worth a look at 25/1.
The Connacht winger scored three times in the Autumn series, bringing his overall international tally to 12 in 25 games, and should see plenty of the ball in a team that is fully expected to go close to an historic third successive Six Nations title.
GUINNESS SIX NATIONS CHAMPIONSHIP SELECTIONS
Ireland/France dual forecast, 13/8 (Boylesports);
Ireland to win the Grand Slam, 7/2 (General)
Duhan van der Merwe, top tryscorer, e/w, 12/1 (Sky Bet)
Mack Hansen, top tryscorer, e/w, 25/1 (888sport)
