WHEN your club side is struggling for results – as mine certainly is at present – international breaks can often offer a little bit of respite, some calm between the storms.
The WhatsApp groups full of Liverpool supporters tend to be a bit quieter, with most members hoping for the same outcome for a couple of matches at least.
However, such has been the run of form the Republic of Ireland have been on of late that very little respite has been on offer, with frustrating results at club level spilling over to the international scene.
Despite a long drawn-out switch of manager, very little changed as the fourth renewal of the Uefa Nations League got going last month, Heimir Hallgrimsson’s tenure starting with 2-0 defeats at home to both England and Greece in Group B2.
Those losses mean Ireland’s overall Nations League record now stands at two wins from 18 games, and while it is hardly the most captivating of competitions, results do matter in terms of rankings and seedings for the qualification phase for the 2026 World Cup.
Hallgrimsson has gone on record as saying he wants to look at new combinations before the really serious business begins in 2025, but his predecessor Stephen Kenny would be able to tell him all about the importance of making a decent start in the role.
After two home defeats, Ireland take to the road over the next few days, with games against Finland in Helsinki on Thirsday night followed by a familiar trek to Athens to face Greece on Sunday.
Given that the Greeks have comfortably had the Republic’s number three times in the last 16 months, the Finland game probably represents the best chance to get some points on the board, and most firms actually have the away side as marginal favourites.
I’m struggling to work the logic of that one out, although the Finns themselves are badly out of form, the confidence of a four-game winning streak in the middle of 2023 long since gone.
A poor run of results was started by a home defeat to Kazakhstan this time last year, with Wales hammering them in a play-off for Euro 2024 in March.
There is very little to fear in the Finnish ranks, with Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky by far their best performer, while Minnesota United’s veteran Teemu Pukki remains their main goalscoring option.
The problem is that there is no reliable source of goals in the Irish ranks either, with Evan Ferguson seemingly well down the pecking order at Brighton, and Adam Idah in-and-out of the Celtic team and looking well off the pace against England last month.
Chiedozie Ogbene consistently looks Ireland’s biggest threat, although Hallgrimsson tried him at wing-back last month as a back three was used against Greece.
That formation makes sense given that the Icelander has plenty of decent central defenders at his disposal, but Ogbene needs to be closer to the opposition goal to ruffle a few feathers, as he did with his disallowed goal against the Greeks.
Hopefully Hallgrimsson can have more of an impact in this camp now that he has got to know the players a bit better, and his history suggests he will make his team hard to beat and proficient at set-pieces, which is probably as much as we can hope for until Ferguson gets things back on track after injuries.
In terms of tomorrow night’s game, there is no way it will be a high-scoring clash, and you’d have to think getting a first point on the board would suit both Hallgrimsson and opposite number Markku Kanerva, who saw his side lose 3-0 to Greece and 2-0 to England last month.
Therefore, the draw is the best bet at 21/10 with William Hill, while given the dearth of reliable goalscorers on either side, it is surely a good idea to back the 0-0 at 13/2 with Bet Victor.
Of course, there is always the chance of a goal coming from a defensive error or a set-piece, so another angle could be to back under 1.5 goals in the game at 11/8 generally as Hallgrimsson tries to a gain a foothold in his new role.
Emerging force could be Georgia best bet of the week
With matches spread out over six successive nights, the opportunities to lose – or win – money are endless, although finding value at international level can prove tricky.
That said, on value grounds alone, Georgia might just prove to be the bet of the week at 13/5 with Unibet ‘away’ to Ukraine on Friday night.
In my eyes the pricing is all wrong here, particularly given that the game will be played at a neutral venue in Poznan due to the ongoing unrest in Ukraine, while the form of both nations would suggest Georgia should be full of confidence.
They defeated Portugal at the Euros in the summer before giving eventual champions Spain a scare for a while in the last 16, and Willy Sagnol’s entertaining team have picked up where they left off in Group B1, soundly beating Czech Republic 4-1 and then winning in Albania.
By contrast, Ukraine lost to both of those opponents last month, look short on confidence, and won’t be looking forward to facing a side inspired by Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who has made a fine start to the Serie A season.
More cautious punters might want to take the 8/5 offered by Boylesports in the draw-no-bet market, but the 13/5 is crying out to be backed.
Italy also made a strong start to the Nations League after a shocking Euro 2024, winning away to France and seeing off Israel, and I fancy them to get the better of Belgium in Group A2.
Luciano Spalletti is a coach who invariably gets things right at some stage, and he has a hard-working, youthful squad with no superstars.
Belgium have become almost the exact opposite of that as their golden generation gets older, and with Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku both missing, a home win in Rome looks the bet at 10/11 generally.
Returning to Ireland’s section, Group B2, Lee Carsley’s audition for the England job continues at home to Greece on Thursday night, and I expect more of the same after two routine victories last month.
Carsley wants his side to keep possession and pass teams into submission, although they are unlikely to score a shed-load of goals.
Greece can be a hard nut to crack but England will wear them down eventually, so I like the look of a home win and under 2.5 goals in the game at 9/4 (Sky Bet).
If only Ireland games – and international breaks in general – could pass off so serenely and without a hitch.
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE SELECTIONS
Finland v Republic of Ireland, draw, 21/10 (William Hill); 0-0 draw, 13/2 (Bet Victor); under 1.5 goals in the game, 11/8 (General);
Georgia to beat Ukraine, 13/5 (Unibet);
Italy to beat Belgium, 10/11 (General);
England to beat Greece and under 2.5 goals in game, 9/4 (SkyBet)
