After breaking the glass ceiling by becoming the first team in English football history to win four successive top-flight titles last term, Manchester City will embark on their drive for five with a tricky trip to Chelsea on Sunday afternoon.
And despite finishing last season like a house on fire – in the Premier League at least – there is more of a sense of vulnerability surrounding Pep Guardiola’s team than at any other stage in their historic run of success.
City go into the new campaign as deserved favourites to hold onto their crown, but the fact they are odds-against hints at the issues hovering in the background.
The first among those is that Guardiola, the Messiah who has delivered six titles in seven seasons, has strongly hinted he will move on when his contract expires next summer.
Then there is the small matter of 115 charges hanging over the club for financial irregularities, with the feeling that a hearing will take place next month. Whether any verdicts will be handed down in time to have an impact on the 2024/25 season remains to be seen, but enough doubts persist to explain why the 6/4 title jollies are also as short at 8/1 with some firms to be relegated.
As well as off-field concerns, there is also a sense that things aren’t quite what they were on the playing side, and it could be argued that City approach the new term with a relatively thin squad, with Guardiola’s policy of letting any unhappy player leave seeing Julian Alvarez head to Atletico Madrid for admittedly huge money.
Certainly, if City are to make it five on the bounce, they will have to lean heavily on their trophy-laden core of players, with Kevin De Bruyne and Kyle Walker not getting any younger, and Ederson casting glances towards Saudi cash.
The availability of the imperious Rodri and wrecking ball striker Erling Haaland will be key to any hopes of another league success, while Phil Foden needs to get back to the brilliant form of last season and leave his Euro 2024 struggles behind.
Guardiola is likely to reinvest the money from the Alvarez sale, and things might seem more secure with a couple of big names to join Brazilian winger Savinho as new arrivals, but City could be worth taking on this term.
And the biggest challengers are quite clearly Arsenal, who have been backed heavily in recent weeks to win a first title since the Invincibles season of 2003/04.
Having choked when well placed down the stretch in 2022/23, Mikel Arteta’s men pushed City all the way last season, taking the fight to the last game before losing out by two points.
Arteta deliberately made his team steelier last summer, with Declan Rice adding power and mobility, and the move paid off with the best defensive record in the top tier. It wasn’t quite enough, but patience is a virtue and the Gunners might just get their rewards come May.
Recruitment has been minimal in north London, with Italian international Riccardo Califiori the only new face thus far, although Jurrien Timber, signed from Ajax last summer only to sustain a cruciate injury on his debut, will feel like a new recruit and will add class and versatility to the backline.
With the superb William Saliba patrolling the defence after shining for France at the Euros, and Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli always threatening, there is every reason to think Arteta can get his charges over the line this time.
Critics have pointed to the lack of a natural goalscorer, but they found the net 91 times last season with a good spread across the team and Kai Havertz getting better all the time.
Arsenal are now a best-priced 15/8 (Bet365) to finally end their title wait, and while that is short enough, they do look the best bet given the issues at City and the shortcomings in the other ‘contenders’.
Experienced Liverpool far from lambs to the Slot-er
Liverpool (7/1) were a clear third-best last term but, having looked like challengers at halfway, they finished nine points off the pace as Jurgen Klopp’s farewell tour fell a little flat.
The much-talked-about Quadruple charge delivered only the League Cup before Klopp stepped aside, with Arne Slot brought in from Feyenoord in his stead. That switch will bring a new style, with full throttle football replaced by a possession-based gameplan that needs to bed in.
Slot knows what he wants, however, and he has proven class in his playing ranks which explains the lack of urgency in the transfer market, although I would be a little concerned about how poor Virgil van Dijk was at the Euros, and how agitated he became as a result.
Mo Salah, Dominik Szobozslai and Alexis Mac Allister are quality, while Trent Alexander-Arnold will provide loads of chances as always, so Liverpool should maintain their third-best status, and it is worth looking at the 15/2 generally on offer about Arsenal, City and the Reds finishing as the top three in that order.
That would leave a stampede for the final coveted Champions League spot, occupied this time around by Aston Villa after a brilliant season under Unai Emery.
Seven teams are ahead of Villa in the title betting, while they are as big as 7/2 to repeat their top four finish, with Chelsea seen by the bookies as the most likely to sneak into Europe’s top competition.
It is hard to know how things will go for the Blues, who are 20/1 (Bet365) to win the title, with a massive gamble taken when replacing Mauricio Pochettino with Enzo Maresca, a Guardiola disciple who won the Championship with Leicester City in May but has no top-level management experience.
The summer has seen more money splashed in haphazard fashion, and the good work of the latter stages of last season under Pochettino could be undone.
With Newcastle United, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur also in the mix, I’d rather back Chelsea at 7/4 not to finish in the top six than at 6/4 to be in the top four.
Newcastle will benefit from missing out on Europe, and in Alexander Isak they have a striker who can go all the way to the top, but they might not have enough to get into the mix, which leaves Man United and Spurs.
United struggled badly on the way to eighth last term but finished on a high with their FA Cup success, and have been busy in the transfer market, bringing in striker Joshua Zirkzee, Bayern Munich defenders Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui, and young centre-back Leny Yoro, who is out for a few months after getting injured in pre-season.
Injuries were a factor in Erik ten Hag’s struggles last season and the Dutchman needs to make a fast start to convince the new hierarchy he deserves a long stay at Old Trafford. He definitely has something to work on with Kobbie Mainoo, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Hojlund hinting at brighter days ahead, but a fight for the top four is as good as it will get.
And they may just come up short, with Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs likely to kick on after finishing fifth in the Australian’s first season. Ange made a flying start before injuries and the harsh realities of the Premier League bit, but with another pre-season to get his very specific ideas across and a striker – Dominic Solanke – brought in to finally replace Harry Kane, they can take a step forward.
Son Heung-Min will enjoy playing off Solanke, James Maddison should be refreshed after missing out on the Euros, and Mickey van de Ven and Cristian Romero form an aggressive and quick defensive pairing.
Spurs are 9/4 with Bet Victor to finish in the top four which looks a good bet, and while the Tottenham fans will be happy enough with that, they could also be firing envious glances across north London, with Arsenal fancied to halt City’s drive for five and end a 21-year title wait.
SELECTIONS
Arsenal to win Premier League, 15/8 (Bet365);
Arsenal/Man City/Liverpool tricast, 15/2 (General);
Tottenham Hotspur, top four finish, 9/4 (Bet Victor);
Chelsea not to finish in top six, 7/4 (William Hill);
William Saliba, PFA Player of the Year, 28/1 (William Hill)
