A ‘dead cat bounce’ is always misleading, but Northern Ireland’s men must hope that a ‘dead rubber bounce’ offers some real potential for the future.
A largely awful year results-wise at least witnessed a glimmer of hope amidst the gloom and doom as Michael O’Neill’s young side finished the Euro 2024 qualifying campaign by beating group H winners Denmark 2-0 in Belfast.
Sure, the Danes had already secured top sport by virtue of their head-to-head record against Slovenia, and sent out an under-strength side – but so did their hosts at Windsor Park.
That wasn’t by choice, though, with NI harshly afflicted by injury absences, as they were throughout the group, a sizeable factor in their ability to make any sort of challenge for qualification.
This year seemed to be one of all or nothing: mostly the latter, with seven defeats, but with three victories, albeit two of those against the lowest-ranked team in the world, San Marino.
NI literally couldn’t draw any comfort from their other matches. It truly was win or bust.
The problem with carrying forward any positivity from the victory over Denmark is that the next competitive match, in the 2024/25 Nations League, isn’t until next September.
After an intense 2023, 2024 could be rather dull.
The attention-grabbing focus and debate is likely to be off the pitch, albeit still about a pitch.
Throwing another animal into the mix, the elephant in the room, or at least further west in Belfast, remains Casement Park.
There’d been rumblings of discontent about the GAA venue being lined up as a potential host venue for the Euro 2028 soccer tournament but those turned into public roars of disapproval after confirmation that the UK and Ireland bid had won.
Initially the outcry was voiced by supporters, and in crude chants, starting at the home qualifier against San Marino. The opposition continued at subsequent matches, and then into the significant setting of the IFA AGM.
‘You can shove your Casement Park up your h***’ - vulgar anti-Casement Park chant sung at Windsor
The atmosphere there may well have been more intense than for large parts of certain home games, with disappointing fare giving fans little to cheer about.
The campaign had been approached with considerable optimism: even top seeds Denmark weren’t world-beaters, while Finland, Slovenia, and Kazakhstan did not seem like sides to be fears.
Instead, there were defeats against all those supposed rivals for the play-off place, both home and away.
Perhaps the most difficult aspect of the campaign to accept was the number of 1-0 losses; five in all.
They arguably merited a point in most of those five narrow defeats, but still there’s no getting away from a number of poor performances over the piece as well.
Somewhat surprisingly, the home form was flat, with tepid displays against Finland, Kazakhstan, and Slovenia, but the worst showings were on the road – except in Copenhagen.
A lengthy VAR check eventually denied teenage substitute Callum Marshall a dramatic last-gasp equaliser away to the Danes and that seemed to set the tone of ill-luck for much of the rest of the campaign.
The metaphorical chant of ‘1-0 to the opposition’ became repetitive. Better than the f-words, though – ‘Four nil to Finland’, the outcome in the penultimate qualifier.
A 1-0 loss was the result in exactly half the matches. People, especially supporters, get tired of hearing hard luck stories; players and management get sick of telling them.
NI didn’t have the experience, the guile, to break down disciplined defences, so the age-old lack of scoring power persisted. Just nine goals in 10 matches, with five of those against San Marino. Failure to score in six matches. Two of the goals coming in a 4-2 loss.
O’Neill’s sides which reached Euro 2016 and came close to getting to World Cup 2018 relied heavily on scoring from set plays but the current side doesn’t carry any such threat.
As well as the long-term absences of skipper Steven Davis and the versatile Stuart Dallas, many other senior stars dropped in and out of availability with various injuries.
Symptomatic of most of the year, young midfield star Shea Charles got himself sent off in the home loss to Slovenia. His absence was evident in Helsinki.
Even without all the injuries Charles had established himself as a certain starter, but the gaps to be filled did allow opportunities for others.
Isaac Price was notable among those. Everton’s loss was not only Standard Liege’s gain; his move to Belgium gave him regular top flight first team football and he blossomed as an attacking midfielder, netting against Slovenia and Denmark.
Conor McMenamin is no youngster, now 28, but his move to full-time football with St Mirren has allowed him to come closer to his potential. His pace and directness are much-needed and he backed those up with end product – a goal against San Marino as well as assists and chances created in other matches.
Conor Bradley missed much of the campaign due to injury, although that allowed Trai Hume to come in and show his quality in defence.
Just as newer faces always have something to play for, there’s never a completely ‘dead’ rubber, with all competitive matches feeding in some way into the increasingly convoluted qualifying systems. The Nations League is now connected to World Cup qualifying as well as to those for the Euros.
Having started the year at 59th in the Fifa World Rankings, NI slipped down as low as 75th before recovering slightly to 72nd. That represents 35th among Uefa sides, so there’s clearly plenty of room for improvement and progress.
O’Neill’s previous achievements earned him time and sympathy, quite rightly, even if his predecessor Ian Baraclough might have been looking on enviously.
There’s little real pressure on O’Neill until later this year, but the signs of life shown against the Danes will have to be maintained consistently.
NI men’s 2023 results (all Euro 2024 qualifiers):
March 23: San Marino 0-2 Northern Ireland
March 26: NI 0-1 Finland
June 16: Denmark 1-0 NI
June 19: NI 0-1 Kazakhstan
September 7: Slovenia 4-2 NI
September 10: Kazakhstan 1-0 NI
October 14: NI 3-0 San Marino
October 17: NI 0-1 Slovenia
November 17: Finland 4-0 NI
November 20: NI 2-0 Denmark